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Supercomputer Prediction: Who Will Be The 2025 Masters Winner? Top 10, & Best Value Picks
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Get to know David Evans betterPublished09 Apr 2025
A supercomputer simulation based on strokes gained (SG) data has run thousands of scenarios to forecast the 2025 Masters. No betting odds were used in the model. Instead, it focused purely on performance metrics tied to Augusta success—particularly SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green, which have defined Masters winners over the last decade.
Below, you’ll find the projected winner, top 10 contenders, and where the value lies compared to current top sportsbooks’ odds. Here’s what AI had to say about the 2025 Masters.
Supercomputer Masters 2025 Analysis
Why SG: Approach Matters at Augusta
Augusta National rewards elite ball-striking more than any other major venue. Recent champions like Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, and Dustin Johnson all gained significant strokes on approach and tee-to-green during their wins.
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SG: Approach accounts for roughly 35–40% of a Masters winner’s total SG in the tournament.
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SG: Putting, often overhyped, tends to be average or even below average in winning performances.
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Driving accuracy is less relevant—distance and approach are far more predictive.
With this information factored into the model, here are the predictions for this year’s Masters:
AI Projected Win Probabilities for 2025 Masters
| Player | Win % |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 23% |
| Rory McIlroy | 18% |
| Jon Rahm | 9% |
| Xander Schauffele | 5% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 4% |
| Viktor Hovland | 4% |
| Collin Morikawa | 4% |
| Brooks Koepka | 3% |
| Jordan Spieth | 3% |
| Justin Thomas | 3% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 3% |
| Cameron Smith | 2% |
| Corey Conners | 2% |
| Sepp Straka | 2% |
| Cameron Young | 1% |
Supercomputer Masters 2025 Predictions – Top 10 Finish
| Player | Top 10 % |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 58% |
| Rory McIlroy | 46% |
| Jon Rahm | 39% |
| Xander Schauffele | 30% |
| Collin Morikawa | 24% |
| Jordan Spieth | 23% |
| Brooks Koepka | 19% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 23% |
| Viktor Hovland | 22% |
| Justin Thomas | 18% |
AI Best Bets for The Masters 2025
| Player | Model Win % | Implied % (Odds) | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 23% | 18.2% (+450) | ✅ Strong |
| Rory McIlroy | 18% | 12.5% (+700) | ✅ Strong |
| Jon Rahm | 9% | 5.3% (+1800) | ✅ Strong |
| Viktor Hovland | 4% | 2.4% (+4000) | ✅ Solid |
| Patrick Cantlay | 4% | 2.4% (+4000) | ✅ Solid |
| Cameron Smith | 2% | 1.6% (+6000) | ✅ Slight |
*Odds courtesy of BetOnline
Scottie Scheffler leads the field in the underlying metrics that predict Masters success. If he putts even average, he’s a huge favorite. McIlroy, chasing the career Grand Slam again, enters with elite approach numbers and strong recent finishes. Both offer value even at the top of the board.
Further down, players like Cantlay, Hovland, and Smith offer upside. This tournament rewards sustained ball-striking, and the numbers show that these three golfers are among the elite strikers in the game.
For prop markets, the model suggests targeting top-10 or top-20 finishes for strong tee-to-green players who aren’t likely to win but can grind out a solid week. Think Corey Conners, Sepp Straka, or even Cameron Young. All project well in finish probability models but have long outright odds.
On the flip side, popular names like Bryson or JT may be better fades in matchup or placement bets given their recent approach numbers. Stick to guys who gain consistently on approach—Augusta punishes any gaps in ball-striking, and the props market tends to overlook that edge.
Overvalued Players Based on SG Data
These players are getting too much respect in the market relative to their ball-striking stats.
| Player | Model Win % | Implied % (Odds) | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa | 4% | 5.9% (+1600) | ❌ Overvalued |
| Justin Thomas | 3% | 4.4% (+2200) | ❌ Overvalued |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 3% | 4.8% (+2000) | ❌ Overvalued |
*Odds courtesy of BetOnline
Masters Predictions Summary
- Best Value Bets: Scottie Scheffler (+450), Rory McIlroy (+700), Jon Rahm (+1800)
- Strong Mid-Tier Value: Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay at +4000
- Live Longshot: Cameron Smith (+6000) has slight positive value
- Top Win Probability: Scheffler (23%) and McIlroy (18%) lead all players
- Overvalued Players: Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau
- Augusta-Specific Edges: SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green were most predictive
Commentary
Nick Raffoul, Head of News at SportsCasting commented on the Supercomputer’s findings:
“These AI-driven results match what we’ve seen play out at Augusta for years. Players like Scheffler and McIlroy separate themselves because their tee-to-green metrics are consistently elite. The model’s decision to ignore putting — which is volatile — and instead weight SG: Approach heavily is sound.
“When you see guys like Cantlay and Hovland priced at 40-to-1 with metrics similar to top-five contenders, that’s actionable. The path to winning at Augusta starts with a 7-iron, not a putter.”
