Dwayne Johnson takes a dramatic turn for the first time in years in The Smashing Machine. Will Johnson’s star power generate a financial profit? View the opening weekend box office odds and predictions for The Smashing Machine.
What is The Smashing Machine About?
The Smashing Machine is based on the 2002 documentary The Smashing Machine: The Life and Times of Extreme Fighter Mark Kerr.
Johnson stars as Mark Kerr, a pioneer in mixed martial arts and an early champion in the UFC. Kerr rose to the top of the sport in the late ’90s and early ’00s, culminating with two UFC Heavyweight Tournament wins.
Kerr would also fight for Pride FC in Japan.
Outside of the arena, Kerr was fighting an even tougher battle: addiction. The more Kerr fought, the more he relied on painkillers and narcotics to get by in his daily life.
Besides Johnson, The Smashing Machine stars Emily Blunt as Dawn Staples, Mark’s then-girlfriend; Ryan Bader as Mark Coleman, Kerr’s former rival turned mentor; Bas Rutten as himself, one of Kerr’s coaches; and Oleksandr Usyk as Igor Vovchanchyn, a fellow heavyweight fighter who matches up against Kerr.
The Smashing Machine is written and directed by Benny Safdie. The Smashing Machine is Safdie’s first feature film directorial effort without his brother, Josh.
The Smashing Machine hits theaters on October 3, 2025.
The Smashing Machine Opening Weekend Box Office Odds & Predictions
| The Smashing Machine Opening Weekend Box Office: Domestic | Odds |
|---|---|
| Less than $7 million | +178 |
| $7 million to $8.5 million | +163 |
| $8.5 million to $10 million | +317 |
| $10 million to $11.5 million | +2400 |
| Over $11.5 million | +4900 |
Odds via Polymarket on 10/2/25 at 6:30 p.m. ET
For Johnson, The Smashing Machine represents a turning point in his career.
Johnson has been stuck in IP and franchises for the last 15 years. The Smashing Machine is a dramatic role in an A24 movie, where the box office return could be the lowest of his career.
However, the role is a chance for Johnson to prove he has the talent to be a dramatic actor.
Early reviews have been positive, with Johnson’s performance garnering critical acclaim. Johnson’s name has been mentioned for Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars.
While it’s unlikely he will win, Johnson’s career trajectory will shift if he can score a nomination.
As for the box office, The Smashing Machine tracking has the film anywhere from $8 million to $15 million.
Taylor Swift’s The Official Release Party of a Showgirl will dominate the weekend box office. However, The Smashing Machine is good counterprogramming, especially for men who love Johnson and combat sports.
Update: The Smashing Machine earned about $6 million over its opening weekend.
