Toronto Blue Jays Surging: Can They Win The AL East?

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr., right, celebrates with Bo Bichette.

The Toronto Blue Jays were viewed as a team that could be sellers at the trade deadline.

About a month ago, the Blue Jays did not look like a threat in the AL East.

Since May 28, the Toronto Blue Jays have gone 21-10 and have surged to within one game of the New York Yankees in the AL East.

Between May 28 and June 11, the Blue Jays went 12-2.

They have started a new hot streak, going 5-1 from June 26 to July 1, scoring five or more runs in five of the six contests during that stretch.

With the Toronto Blue Jays surging, they are currently one game back of the New York Yankees in the AL East.

Can The Blue Jays Win The AL East?

With the Toronto Blue Jays playing much better since May 28, they have climbed the standings in the AL and AL East.

They hold the top wild-card spot in the AL and are just one game back of the New York Yankees in the AL East.

The offense for Toronto has been red hot recently. In their last 10 games, the Blue Jays are averaging 6.1 runs per game.

Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette, George Springer, Ernie Clement, and Alejandro Kirk are all hitting .270 or better on the season.

Guerrero has a batting average of .278 with an expected batting average of .325. Guerrero’s metrics show he should continue to keep getting better on offense and his numbers are expected to improve into the second half of the season. Here is a screenshot of Guerrero’s batting metrics from Baseball Savant.

Once thought to be on the trade block, Bo Bichette is another player who has been key to the Blue Jays recent surge. While he is hitting .272 on the season, his expected batting average is .309. Here is a screenshot of Bichette’s batting metrics from Baseball Savant.

Springer’s metrics are excellent as well. While he has a .486 slugging %, his expected slugging is .543, indicating he may be set to hit more home runs. Here is a screenshot of Springer’s batting metrics from Baseball Savant.

Alejandro Kirk’s numbers and expected numbers are very good as well. He has a much higher expected slugging percentage than his actual slugging %, indicating more power is on the way.

Ernie Clement’s numbers suggest a dip in production. Of the five batters, he has the worst metrics, according to Baseball Savant.

Pitching remains an issue for the Blue Jays. Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Kevin Gausman have each started 17 games for Toronto this season. Bassitt and Gausman each have an ERA over 4.00. Berrios has a solid ERA of 3.26 but has a 1.21 WHIP and an expected ERA of 4.56.

The offense has been carrying the Blue Jays during this hot stretch and has put them in a great position to win the AL East.

If their starting rotation can improve, the Toronto Blue Jays can leap the New York Yankees and win the AL East.

Blue Jays Will Be Buyers At Trade Deadline

About a month ago, the Toronto Blue Jays looked like seller candidates for the MLB trade deadline.

With their recent hot streak and climbing the standings, they have turned things around and are now buyers.

Toronto will be looking for arms at the trade deadline. They need to boost their starting rotation.

Adding at the deadline “is always the plan here,” manager John Schneider added. “We’re still a little bit away but when you get around this time, guys get excited about it. I think that we do a really good job of trying to improve our team. You look back getting Jose (Berrios in 2021), getting Jordan Hicks (in 2023), there are some players over the years that have come in and helped. And it’s cool that we’re in a position right now to do that again.”

Adding a starting pitcher will be the top priority for the Blue Jays. The relievers for Toronto have been good, ranking top 10 in ERA and WHIP.

The offense has been red hot, and metrics show it may be even better.

It is clear what the Blue Jays need at the trade deadline. For the Toronto Blue Jays to compete in the playoffs, they need to boost their starting rotation.