Is Trey Murphy III A Star In The Making?

The 2024-25 season has been a doomsday for the New Orleans Pelicans. They entered the year with playoff ambitions, but now sit 13-42 and last in the Western Conference.

However, one bright spot to all this has been the play of Trey Murphy III. The fourth-year forward is playing the best basketball of his young career. Over his last 24 games, Murphy is averaging 24.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists on shooting splits of 48.2/39.4/89.3.

This stretch has many people wondering: just how good can Murphy be?

Where Is Murphy Thriving?

Injuries are the main reason this season has been such a dumpster fire for the Pelicans. According to Spotrac, they’ve lost the most cash to injuries this season (~47.4 million).

It isn’t atypical for role players to put up gaudy counting stats when forced into a bigger role, but what usually coincides with this increased load is a dip in inefficiency because they aren’t used the increased attention from defenses.

For instance, Jaren Jackson Jr. was forced into a similar position for the Memphis Grizzlies last season, and while his points per game rose from 18.6 to 22.5, his true shooting percentage fell from 61.1 to 55.4. This turned out to be a great learning experience, one that has fueled a career-best campaign this year, but the point still stands. When a player who isn’t used to being a primary option becomes one, their efficiency usually takes a hit.

That hasn’t happened to Murphy, though. Despite going from averaging 14.8 points per game to 22.4, his efficiency has stayed about the exact same (61.5 percent true shooting, compared to 61.8 percent last year).

Murphy has been an efficient player throughout his career because he keeps an efficient shot diet. According to Basketball Reference, 74 percent of his field goal attempts are coming from within three feet of the rim or beyond the arc.

In the past, he acquired these shots through play-finisher actions, like catch-and-shoot triples or lob dunk opportunities (he did finish second in the 2023 Slam Dunk Contest). However, without primary creators to set the table, it becomes much harder to gain access to these efficient opportunities.

To counter this, he’s been taking matters into his own hands. Instead of settling for contested midrange jumpers, he’s attacking the rim nearly twice as much as last season, while also taking pull-up triples more frequently than before (up from 1.6 attempts per game to 2.9, per NBA.com). He’s finding a way to maintain his pristine shot diet in suboptimal circumstances.

Even with his solid drive and pull-up numbers, Murphy’s rim, midrange and 3-point numbers are slightly down from last season. But it hasn’t hurt his overall efficiency because his increased aggression has led to more free throw attempts than ever before — the most efficient shot you can take.

Where Has Murphy Struggled?

After finishing in the 80th percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus last year, Murphy is in the 12th percentile this season. This may seem concerning, but context makes it much easier to dismiss.

As we said, the Pelicans have dealt with many injuries. One of the most prominent players they’ve missed is Herbert Jones, who has been sidelined for 35 of their first 55 games and will be out for the rest of the season as he recovers from shoulder surgery.

This season (and throughout his career), the Pelicans have been a much better defensive team with Jones on the floor (8.8 points per 100 possessions in 2024-25). His absence has hurt them substantially. Couple that with losing both their veteran centers, as well as Dyson Daniels and Naji Marshall, this offseason, and Murphy is asked to do a lot more work on the defensive end than he should be.

On tape, he’s still an active defender who moves well. And on a better team, he’ll be able to continue using his 7-foot wingspan to create turnovers off the ball and provide secondary rim protection (48th percentile steal rate and 65th percentile block rate among forwards, per Cleaning the Glass).

Where his game is really lacking is as a passer and playmaker. At a glance, his facilitation skills seem to have taken a step forward. He’s gone from averaging 3.6 assists per 100 possessions to 4.9, but that seems to be more of a consequence of increased opportunity.

A more granular metric like Passer Rating makes Murphy’s growth seem insignificant. Last year, he had a Passer Rating of 4.4 out of 10. This year, that number has only gone up to 4.6.

Murphy’s passing stagnation can be attributed to his inability to survey the floor while attacking off the dribble. This limitation is a telltale sign of a poor handle. This season, he’s in the 38th percentile in handle turnover percentage, per Thinking Basketball.

So, Just How Good Is Murphy?

Remember that box score line we cited in the beginning? Well, only 18 players have ever put up those kind of numbers for a period of 20 or more games. Seventeen of those players have been named to multiple All-Star teams, and the only player who hasn’t is Murphy himself.

That alone tells you if he can sustain those numbers for an entire season on a winning team — especially one which enables him to highlight his strengths on defense — he can reach fringe All-Star status.

Now, if Murphy wants to vault himself into top-20 player conversations, he will need to strengthen his handle so he can better dissect defenses as a playmaker. Granted, it’s a feat often easier said than done.

Regardless, this recent run proves the downtrodden Pelicans likely have a soon-to-be All-Star in their ranks. That’s certainly a silver lining in what’s otherwise been a lost season for them.