Two weeks into the 2025 NFL season, several teams are already disappointing both fans and bettors. Poor starts against the spread, sloppy play, and leftover frustration from 2024 have put a handful of head coaches on the hot seat. Using performance data and context, here are the updated odds and probabilities for which NFL head coach will be fired first this season according to our expert trading team at SportsCasting.
First NFL Coach Fired in 2025 Odds
| Coach | Team | Odds | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McDaniel | Dolphins | +185 | 35% |
| Brian Daboll | Giants | +300 | 25% |
| Dave Canales | Panthers | +400 | 20% |
| Kevin Stefanski | Browns | +550 | 15% |
| Brian Callahan | Titans | +1700 | 5% |
| The Field | Others | +400 | 20% |
Mike McDaniel – Dolphins (+185, 35%)
Miami’s 0-2 start has been one of the ugliest in the NFL. The Dolphins gave up 33 points in both games, failed to cover either spread, and had a players-only meeting after Week 1. That kind of early-season dysfunction usually signals a head coach in real trouble.
This goes beyond two bad games. Miami collapsed late in 2024, missing the playoffs despite one of the most talented rosters in the AFC. Questions around Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill linger, and McDaniel hasn’t steadied the ship. His postgame remark after Week 1 — “I don’t see how it could be worse” — captured the growing frustration inside the building.
The offense still shows flashes, but the defense is porous, and game management has been sloppy. With Buffalo next on the schedule, pressure could mount quickly. Unless Miami snaps out of it immediately, McDaniel looks like the most likely coach to be fired first.
Brian Daboll – Giants (+300, 25%)
Daboll’s seat was already warm entering the season. Many were surprised he was brought back after 2024, and the Giants’ 0-2 start has done nothing to ease concerns. A sloppy home loss to Washington in Week 1 followed by an overtime collapse in Dallas has the Giants staring at another rough start.
The Giants actually competed better in Week 2, but 14 penalties for 160 yards is the type of undisciplined football that reflects poorly on the coaching staff.
Daboll is just two years removed from winning Coach of the Year, but the shine is gone. With matchups against playoff contenders looming, a 1-5 or 0-6 start could easily trigger a midseason change.
Dave Canales – Panthers (+400, 20%)
The Panthers’ 0-2 start feels like déjà vu. Carolina opened 0-4 last season, and ownership was clear it expected progress in Year 2. Instead, the offense looks as flat as ever, with Bryce Young struggling to find consistency. Fans are already voicing frustration, and confidence in Canales is slipping fast.
Normally, a second-year coach would get more leeway. But owner David Tepper is notorious for having little patience, he fired Frank Reich after just 11 games in 2023. That history looms large here. If the Panthers don’t show tangible improvement soon, Canales could follow the same path.
Young was drafted to be the franchise quarterback, and Canales was supposed to be the coach to unlock his potential. If he can’t show progress, his tenure could be cut short despite only being in Year 2.
Kevin Stefanski – Browns (+550, 15%)
Cleveland had playoff aspirations, but an 0-2 start with two divisional losses has already raised red flags. A 17-16 heartbreaker to Cincinnati was followed by a blowout at home to Baltimore. The offense has sputtered badly, and Joe Flacco’s four interceptions in two games hasn’t helped.
Stefanski still carries respect for his offensive mind and early success, but back-to-back subpar seasons have drained goodwill. Owner Jimmy Haslam has changed coaches quickly in the past. If the Browns continue to stumble, Stefanski could be next, though he’s less likely to be the first fired compared to others.
Brian Callahan – Titans (+1700, 5%)
At 0-2, Callahan is technically in the mix. He’s working with rookie quarterback Cam Ward, and the front office sees this as a developmental year. The Titans have shown flashes despite the losses, and Callahan’s job is relatively safe compared to the rest of this list.
That said, poor clock management and a few questionable in-game calls have already raised eyebrows. Unless Tennessee completely collapses, Callahan likely isn’t the first coach to be let go. But if progress stalls, pressure could build later in the season.
The Field (20%)
Other names could emerge depending on how the next month unfolds. Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay, DeMeco Ryans in Houston, and even Zac Taylor in Cincinnati all have question marks. For now, though, the spotlight is firmly on McDaniel, Daboll, and Canales as the most likely early-season casualties.
