Who Will Be The First MLB Manager Fired in 2025? Odds Say Rocco Baldelli and Oliver Marmol Are In Trouble

The 2025 MLB season is less than a month old, but some managers are already feeling the pressure. Early struggles, fan frustration, and front office changes have pushed a handful of skippers to the top of the list of betting odds for the first manager fired. Here’s a look at the favorites—and why they’re in trouble.

Odds to Be the First MLB Manager Fired in 2025

• Rocco Baldelli (MIN Twins) +500 (16.7%)
• Oliver Marmol (STL Cardinals) +550 (15.4%)
• Bud Black (COL Rockies) +700 (12.5%)
• John Schneider (TOR Blue Jays) +800 (11.1%)
• Dave Martinez (WAS Nationals) +900 (10.0%)
• Derek Shelton (PIT Pirates) +1000 (9.1%)
• Brian Snitker (ATL Braves) +1200 (7.7%)
• Will Venable (CHW White Sox) +1400 (6.7%)
• Terry Francona (CIN Reds) +1600 (5.9%)
• Aaron Boone (NYY Yankees) +1800 (5.3%)

*Odds are for entertainment purposes only.

Rocco Baldelli Leading Odds to Be First MLB Manager Fired

According to odds set by our oddsmakers, who have decades of experience at top sportsbooks, Rocco Baldelli is the betting favorite at +500, and it’s not hard to see why. The Twins are off to a 3–8 start, continuing a broader collapse that dates back to late last season. Minnesota has gone 15–35 in their last 50 games, and they currently rank 29th in OPS (.578), 22nd in ERA (4.50), and 29th in Defensive Runs Saved.

Injuries haven’t helped, including a hamstring issue for ace Pablo López. Still, Baldelli’s lineup decisions have been questioned, and his recent ejection over a pitch timer violation shows a level of visible frustration. The runway is short.

Oliver Marmol Also on the Hot Seat in St. Louis

Oliver Marmol is just behind Baldelli at +550. The Cardinals are 5–6, but fan sentiment is souring quickly. Marmol drew criticism after pulling a pitcher during a no-hit bid, the kind of decision that adds fuel to an already skeptical fanbase.

After missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and a 71–91 finish in 2023, he’s under pressure. St. Louis also hired Chaim Bloom to reshape baseball operations, which adds instability to Marmol’s role. If things don’t turn around fast, a change could come early.

Bud Black’s Long Leash May Finally Be Shortening

At +700, Bud Black is third on the list. The Rockies are 2–8, picking up right where they left off after consecutive 100-loss seasons.

Black signed an extension through 2025, and GM Bill Schmidt has been supportive publicly. But results matter. Colorado isn’t just bad—they’re not progressing. With few signs of development, the pressure to move on may finally outweigh loyalty. Still, the odds might be overstating his risk given the front office’s track record of patience.

John Schneider’s Job Could Depend on Playoff Berth

John Schneider comes in at +800. The Blue Jays are off to a decent 7–5 start, but the bigger picture matters. After a strong 2023, Toronto cratered to 74–88 in 2024.

Schneider is in the final year of his deal, and the pressure is on to make the postseason with stars like Bo Bichette nearing free agency. If the Jays fall out of the race early, the front office might not wait until October to make a decision.

Dave Martinez Rounding Out the Top Five

Dave Martinez is fifth favorite to be the first MLB manager fired at +900. The Nationals are 5–6, and while the record isn’t terrible, this continues a long trend of slow starts. Washington opened 1–5 this year, and the patience may be wearing thin.

Martinez has been a constant through the franchise’s ups and downs, including the 2019 World Series title. That history likely gives him some job security, but fans and media are starting to wonder whether the organization needs a fresh voice in the dugout.

Other Managers Worth Watching

Derek Shelton (+1000) could be in trouble if the Pirates continue to stagnate. Fan frustration is growing despite modest improvement. Brian Snitker, Will Venable, and Terry Francona are on the radar but appear safe for now. Aaron Boone’s Yankees have enough talent to mask deeper issues—for now.

Odds Reflect Pressure, Not Just Performance

Nick Raffoul, Head of News at SportsCasting, put it bluntly: “Early-season firings are about expectations more than record. Baldelli and Marmol are under the gun because their teams were supposed to contend—or at least compete. You can’t start 3–8 or pull pitchers from no-hitters and expect people to stay quiet.”

That’s the key: it’s not just about wins and losses—it’s about optics, momentum, and accountability. And in 2025, that spotlight is already hot.