As the World Cup takes a well-deserved breather ahead of its mouthwatering quarter-finals this week, bettors may be wondering where to put their money next.
Bookmakers are currently drawing up their individual player prop markets for the last eight and will offer attractive odds on players to be booked.
No less than 17 players will gear up for their next matches knowing that if they pick up just one yellow card, they will be slapped with a one-game suspension. That, of course, would rule them out of the semi-finals, should their respective countries get there.
There are numerous big names teetering on that brink, including England’s Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice and France’s Michael Olise.
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World Cup Player Booking Implied Probabilities
Using implied probabilities, we have been given a strong indication of who various bookmakers believe are the most volatile disciplinary risks still standing at the World Cup.
Unsurprisingly, tough-tackling defenders and no-nonsense midfielders top the pack.
| Player | Position / Team | Estimated Odds Range | Implied Probability |
| Granit Xhaka | Midfielder (Switzerland) | 13/4 to 10/3 | 23.1% – 23.5% |
| Denis Zakaria | Midfielder (Switzerland) | 7/2 to 4/1 | 20.0% – 22.2% |
| Marc Guéhi | Defender (England) | 4/1 to 9/2 | 18.2% – 20.0% |
| Achraf Hakimi | Full-back (Morocco) | 9/2 to 5/1 | 16.7% – 18.2% |
| Declan Rice | Midfielder (England) | 5/1 to 11/2 | 15.4% – 16.7% |
| Jude Bellingham | Midfielder (England) | 6/1 to 13/2 | 13.3% – 14.3% |
| Bilal El Khannouss | Midfielder (Morocco) | 7/1 to 8/1 | 11.1% – 12.5% |
| Nico O’Reilly | Midfielder (England) | 8/1 to 9/1 | 10.0% – 11.1% |
(Odds subject to change)
Swiss Duo Present Highest Bookmaker Risk
Switzerland’s historic run to the quarter-finals has been built on defensive resilience, but it has come at a disciplinary cost.
Captain Granit Xhaka and partner Denis Zakaria top the charts as the players most likely to see yellow – and therefore be suspended for the semi-finals – in their clash against Argentina.
Xhaka’s estimated implied booking probability sits at a steep 23.5 per cent. Having already accumulated two yellow cards during the tournament, his ultra-combative style in the engine room makes him a prime candidate for another caution.
Zakaria follows closely behind with an implied probability as high as 22.2 per cent.
England Superstars On The Brink
England defender Marc Guehi holds the Three Lions’ highest implied card risk at 20.0 per cent.
Facing a direct and highly physical Norway front line on Saturday, Guehi will be under intense pressure to stop breaks early.
Behind him, defensive anchor Declan Rice holds a 16.7 per cent implied probability to pick up a booking, stemming from his high foul count when shielding the back four. Bellingham isn’t far behind on 14.3 per cent.
Morocco’s superstar full-back Achraf Hakimi faces an uphill struggle to keep France’s mercurial frontline quiet on Thursday. Reflecting this, bookmakers project Hakimi’s booking probability at 18.2 per cent.