July is the month of hope. Not just for NBA fans who view trades, signings and rookies with a glass-half-full approach, believing their favorite ball club made the right decisions to improve the roster, but also for the franchises themselves.
When the season ends, 29 teams embark on a journey to fortify their rosters with the hope — there’s that word again — they can eventually and capably compete against the defending champion. Some aren’t close, others are right on the precipice and a select group is telling themselves, “Why not us?”
Particularly in the Eastern Conference next season, where injuries have decimated the chances of the would-be contenders like the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers, there’s a real opportunity for a few teams to go after it. The Atlanta Hawks are doing just that.
Just 2.5 weeks into the offseason, the Hawks have the 11th-best odds to win the 2026 title and the fourth-best odds to win the East. While betting odds aren’t the be-all, end-all, that is a healthy amount of belief from fans in a team which finished below .500 last season.
But can the new-look Hawks, bolstered by the additions of Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Luke Kennard and rookie Asa Newell, really make a run for it?
Do they have the anatomy of a championship contender?
Let’s dissect it.
The Hawks Have A Recipe For Defensive Success
The Hawks were not a good defensive team last season. They gave up 114.8 points per 100 possessions, which ranked 18th in the league. Much of that is on Trae Young, who has, admittedly, improved in the defensive effort department, but not enough to compensate for his lack of size at the point of attack. It’s not necessarily his fault; it’s becoming increasingly difficult for smaller guards to defend in the modern NBA with the amount of ground coverage required.
But, if you squint, this roster owns the machinations of a good defense, despite Young’s limitations. Among Jalen Johnson, Zacharrie Risacher, Dyson Daniels and, now, Alexander-Walker, the Hawks have the length and versatility on the wings to be wildly disruptive.
Daniels broke out last season as the NBA’s Most Improved Player, primarily due to his defensive dominance; he led the league in steals and deflections by a wide margin. He is a one-man wrecking crew on the perimeter. The plus-sized wingspans and switchability of Johnson, Risacher and Alexander-Walker should enable the Hawks to thrive in one specific area: ball pressure.
We just witnessed the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers make Finals runs as teams relentlessly pressuring the ball. The Hawks can apply a similar tactic with their wing talent.
Allowing just 0.883 points per possession, their press defense ranked in the 83rd percentile last season. They simply didn’t commit to it frequently, pressing on 1.3 percent of their possessions (17th percentile), according to Synergy Sports.
In particularly, the addition of Alexander-Walker can help here. His former team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, often used him in this role and he defended opposing ball-handlers higher up the court. Despite his flaws as a defender, Young’s quickness invites him to pressure the ball and slide his feet.
Between Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu at center, the Hawks have safety blankets to increase their ball pressure while knowing there are shot-blockers on the back end who can protect them.
Okongwu defended more shots around the basket than Clint Capela last year and held opponents to 60 percent at the rim, a valiant mark for an undersized big man. Porzingis, the presumptive starter for the Hawks next season, is the big swing factor. Among the 56 players who defended more than four shots per game at the basket last season, Porzingis ranked seventh in defensive field goal percentage, slotted just below Victor Wembanyama and just above Rudy Gobert.
That’s why Porzingis’s health is one of the most significant elements for the Hawks’ 2025-26 outlook. Atlanta is relying on a player who has failed to play 60 games the last two seasons to be their starting center.
In order for them to truly reach their ceiling, they need him healthy.
An Unstoppable Play?
Among the most common plays in the NBA is “77,” a double ball-screen staggered above the break. It’s been a staple of the Hawks’ offense simply because it forces defenses to make multiple decisions and gives Young — one of the league’s best decision-makers with the ball in his hands — an abundance of options.
…and the Hawks run the double drag again, leading to this floater pic.twitter.com/4WDF7QQ7eg
— Bowser2Bowser (@bowser2bowser) January 30, 2021
The Hawks have run a thousand variations of this play since Young was drafted in 2018, but almost none of them have included a pick-and-pop threat with the skill of Porzingis. Last season, he had 62 pick-and-pop possessions out of pick-and-rolls and generated a whopping 1.329 points per possession while shooting 46 percent from three. In his first (healthier) season with Boston, he had 130 such possessions, generated 1.277 points and shot 46 percent from three.
His dynamism in these sets should make for an unstoppable play for the Hawks’ offense.
In these 77 actions, defenses will scramble to stop Porzingis from popping out to the 3-point line, stop Okongwu/Johnson from rolling to the basket or be worried about Young getting into the teeth of the defense, where his floater game can be deadly. If they somehow stop all of that, there’s the threat of back-cuts from Daniels or Risacher, two highly active off-ball players. With Alexander-Walker (39 percent from three the past two seasons) and Kennard (a career 44 percent outside shooter), the Hawks have the added spacing to become truly lethal offensively.
This is the foundation of what their offensive system can be at its very best. It’ll need to reach those heights if they want to contend next season.
Added Depth And Internal Development
Among the themes of the 2025 postseason was the importance of depth in making deep runs. In some ways, the Thunder and Pacers serve as blueprints. They could go nine or 10 deep on any given night, which kept their players fresh and maintained as much schematic versatility as possible.
The Hawks have undoubtedly gotten deeper this summer. The additions of Porzingis, Alexander-Walker and Kennard are pronounced, but they also added Georgia big man Asa Newell with the 23rd overall pick in the Draft. He may factor into their rotation, especially if Porzingis misses any time.
Internal development can help them go even deeper. The Hawks will be leaning on third-year guard Kobe Bufkin to take a step and become a more reliable ball-handler. Both Risacher and Daniels have room to grow, especially offensively. Mouhamed Gueye showed some impressive flashes toward the end of the season as a versatile, do-it-all forward.
Perhaps more than anyone, the team is looking for Johnson to take a leap heading into his fifth year. After suffering a season-ending shoulder injury, Johnson played just 36 games last season. But in a short amount of time, he showed he had made strides, averaging a career-best 18.9 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, 1.6 steals and one block.
The Hawks were five points better defensively per 100 possessions when Johnson was on the floor, according to PBP Stats. His two-way versatility pairs exceptionally well with Young’s skill-set. Johnson earning an All-Star nod next season isn’t out of the question and should be a goal.
On paper, the Hawks have all the characteristics of a team about to make a jump.
Amplified by their new additions, they have an identity on both ends of the floor to provide stability and versatility. They have young players poised to make strides and elevate the Hawks’ depth. They have the top-end talent to compete in a wide open Eastern Conference.
Above all, this is the best team Young’s ever had, both in terms of sheer talent and the fit around him. Everything is tailored to enhance his best qualities and mitigate some of his weaknesses. He’s never been put in a better position than he will be with this roster.
While things have to shake out right — mainly in regards to health and internal development — there’s a real chance the Hawks can emerge as a title contender next season.
At least, that’s what the hope is in July.
