We’ve reached the halfway point of 2025, and so far, only a few movies are considered contenders for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars. Typically, awards season movies receive fall release dates, so expect many Oscar hopefuls to hit theaters and streamers in the coming months. Where does the Best Picture race stand in July? Below are the odds for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars.
Sinners: Enters The Fall As The Early Favorite
Heading into the fall festival season, the one movie that has established itself as a Best Picture contender is Sinners. Ryan Coogler’s vampiric horror garnered massive critical acclaim upon its release in April.
The horror movie stars Michael B. Jordan as the Smokestack twins, a pair of criminals who go toe-to-toe with a supernatural presence on the opening night of their juke joint.
Thanks to positive reviews and strong word of mouth, Sinners became a box office hit, grossing over $365 million on a rumored budget of $100 million.
The Academy tends to look past horror. Less than 10 horror movies have been nominated for Best Picture, and only The Silence of the Lambs won the top prize.
At this point, Sinners scoring a Best Picture nomination is virtually guaranteed. It won’t be a one-and-done, as Sinners should receive nominations in other categories, including screenplay, director, score, costumes, and more.
2026 Oscars Best Picture Odds
| 2026 Oscars: Best Picture | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sentimental Value | +500 |
| Sinners | +500 |
| After The Hunt | +650 |
| Marty Supreme | +800 |
| Frankenstein | +800 |
| Hamnet | +800 |
| The Ballad of a Small Player | +900 |
| Caught Stealing | +1000 |
| Materialists | +1000 |
| The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde | +1000 |
| Highest 2 Lowest | +1200 |
| Avatar: Fire & Ash | +1200 |
| The Lost Bus | +1200 |
| Bugonia | +1200 |
| Sound of Falling | +1200 |
| The Life of Chuck | +1600 |
| One Battle After Another | +1600 |
| Pressure | +1600 |
| The Smashing Machine | +1600 |
| Deliver Me From Nowhere | +1600 |
| A Big Bold Beautiful Journey | +1600 |
| Die My Love | +1600 |
| Mickey 17 | +2000 |
| Wicked: For Good | +2000 |
| Nouvelle Vague | +2000 |
| Roofman | +2200 |
| The History of Sound | +2200 |
| Anemone | +2500 |
| The Phoenician Scheme | +2500 |
| Train Dreams | +3300 |
| Mother Mary | +3300 |
| Michael | +3300 |
| Jay Kelly | +3300 |
| F1 | +3300 |
| Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery | +4000 |
| Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning | +5000 |
| Eleanor The Great | +5000 |
| Eddington | +5000 |
| Zootopia 2 | +5000 |
| The Bride | +5000 |
| Kiara & The Sun | +5000 |
| The Fantastic Four: First Steps | +5000 |
| Superman | +5000 |
Sinners (+500) is the co-favorite with Sentimental Value (+500), Joachim Trier’s family drama starring Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, and Elle Fanning.
Sentimental Value premiered at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival to excellent reviews and won the Grand Prix.
The next crop of movies should be in contention as long as the critical reviews are positive. This includes After the Hunt (+650), Luca Guadagnino’s dramatic thriller about a college professor (Julia Roberts) who grapples with her morality when her pupil makes a serious accusation against her colleague; Marty Supreme (+800), Josh Safdie’s sports dramedy with Timothée Chalamet set in the underground world of table tennis; Frankenstein (+800), Guillermo del Toro’s adaptation of Mary Shelley’s iconic novel; and Hamnet (+800), Chloé Zhao’s drama starring Paul Mescal and and Jessie Buckley.
The Academy typically reserves one to two spots for a prolific blockbuster. This year, that could be F1 (+3300), Wicked: For Good (+2000), and Avatar: Fire and Ash (+1200).
For a dark horse, Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly (+3300) could find itself as one of the ten nominees for Best Picture. Rumors are that Adam Sandler could be a contender for a supporting Oscar.
