After trading Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for odd reasons and a return package that didn’t make sense this past winter, it only seemed right nothing good would happen to the Dallas Mavericks. After all, practically giving away a generational talent to a franchise that always seems to be getting let off the hook can’t go unpunished, right?
Yet here we are, half a year removed from this fiasco, and the Mavericks have not been subjected to such a harsh fate. Like an immature Blackjack player splitting 10s and winning both hands, the Mavericks pissed off the whole table by pulling off the improbable — securing the first overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, despite only having a 1.8 percent chance of doing so.
Now, they have Cooper Flagg and a roster equipped to be much better than the team’s karma suggests they deserve.
Defense Wins Games
According to BetMGM, the Mavericks’ over/under win total is 39.5. That ranks 18th in the NBA and 10th in the Western Conference. To me, this number is criminally low because, as we’ve learned in the past, you can win a lot of regular season games with a strong defense.
Last year, the injury-riddled Orlando Magic, despite finishing 27th in the NBA in offensive rating, managed to win 41 games, thanks to their second-ranked defense. Most models don’t predict Dallas to have an elite defense but it’s hard to look at the depth chart and not see the makings of a high-level unit.
At center, the Mavericks are loaded defensively. They have one of the best defenders of his generation in Anthony Davis (the main import from the Doncic deal), a burgeoning paint protector in Dereck Lively II (his rim deterrence was in the 94th percentile among centers last year) and another starting-caliber five in Daniel Gafford.
Barring a slew of unfortunate injuries (*knocks wood excessively*), the Mavericks will always have at least one capable defensive anchor on the floor. And when they’re all healthy, Dallas can go with various double-big configurations, which tend to amplify interior defense.
Even with a single center on the floor, the four spot will be occupied by rim-protecting power forwards like P.J. Washington (77th percentile block rate) and Flagg (91st percentile in block rate in the ACC last year, per KenPom).
The Mavericks are also stacked with forwards who can guard at the point-of-attack and be disruptive in passing lanes. Naji Marshall, Max Christie, Caleb Martin and Olivier-Maxence Prosper all have the ability to handle tough matchups on the perimeter or create turnovers with their length and anticipation. Heck, even Klay Thompson can use some of his old man strength to defend fours and bigger threes.
That’s nine high-level defenders who will likely find themselves in head coach Jason Kidd’s rotation. Plus, Thompson is an all-time marksmen who can still hold his own on that end in a strong environment. On paper, given their blend of size, depth and positional rim protection, the Mavericks very easily could be a top-five defense next season.
Mavericks Don’t Need That Much Offensive Punch To Be Successful
Outside of the 2024-25 Magic, only the 2022-23 Chicago Bulls have fielded a top-five defense over the last three years and not won at least 45 games. Both finished among the bottom seven in offensive rating. So, if the Mavericks can have the defense I expect of them, all they really need to win 45ish games is a slightly below-average offense.
Without Kyrie Irving, who will miss much of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL, Dallas is at a major disadvantage offensively. Last season, he posted an Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) of plus-3.2, which led the Mavericks and ranked 19th league-wide.
But even with Irving sidelined, the Mavericks should still have enough offensive firepower to avoid a bottom-10 unit. Davis (92nd percentile Offensive EPM) remains a supremely talented paint scorer who will get his first chance to be fully unleashed in over a half-decade. As we saw toward the end of last season, Kidd found creative ways to generate shots for him, Lively and Gafford around the rim, using some old school concepts blended with new-age Xs and Os.
Irving’s temporary replacement at point guard will be D’Angelo Russell, who can really boost an offense with his scoring and playmaking when he’s feeling it. In 2023-24, Russell averaged 18 points (58.8 percent true shooting) and 6.3 assists per game.
Jaden Hardy and Brandon Williams are also there to log some minutes at point guard. Williams is particularly fascinating because he flashed some real pop during the late stages of last season. During 11 games in March, he averaged 16.6 points (64.7 percent true shooting) and 4.5 assists.
Similarly, Marshall and Christie had strong scoring spurts late in the season. Marshall averaged 19.8 points (59.4 percent true shooting) in 16 March games while Christie averaged 14.1 points (60.9 percent true shooting) in 11 February games. Don’t forget Martin also nearly won the 2022-23 Eastern Conference Finals MVP, thanks in part to his off-the-dribble juice he demonstrated that series. Together, this defensive-minded trio may have enough offensive pizazz to give Dallas some vital complementary creation.
Although Flagg will only be in his inaugural season, my colleague, Ben Pfeifer, graded him as an 8/10 in both advantage creation and on-ball shotmaking, suggesting he’ll be able to contribute as a creator from the get-go.
Among their excellent center rotation, ball-handling trio of Russell, Williams and Hardy, wings with offensive upside and generational top pick, the Mavericks should have enough to piecemeal an average/slightly below-average offensive unit. A passable offense paired with a top-five defense makes for a relatively formidable team.
Last season, the Houston Rockets won 52 games and finished second in the Western Conference using this model. The Mavericks have the tools to (mostly) replicate their success. And if they can, they’ll be much better than they most would expect just one year after trading away a generational superstar.
