After three weeks of the 2025 NFL season, the hot seat picture looks very different from where it stood a week ago. A couple of head coaches have surged to the front of the line, while others have cooled their seats with much-needed wins. Here’s an updated look at the five names most likely to be the first fired according to our expert oddsmakers at SportsCasting, along with changes from Week 2.
Who Will Be the First NFL Head Coach Fired in 2025?
| Coach | Team | Week 3 Odds | Week 3 Probability | Week 2 Odds | Week 2 Probability | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Daboll | Giants | +125 | 44% | +300 | 25% | ▲ +19% |
| Mike McDaniel | Dolphins | +175 | 36% | +185 | 35% | ▲ +1% |
| Kellen Moore | Saints | +500 | 17% | – | – | ▲ New Entry |
| DeMeco Ryans | Texans | +1600 | 6% | – | – | ▲ New Entry |
| Dave Canales | Panthers | +3000 | 3% | +400 | 20% | ▼ -17% |
1. Brian Daboll, New York Giants (+125, ~44%)
Week 2 odds had Daboll second in the market at +300 (25%). After a 22–9 home loss to Kansas City, the Giants sit 0–3 with fans booing and the offense lifeless. Media reporting now suggests Daboll and defensive coordinator Shane Bowen could both be in trouble if results don’t improve.
He’s moved to the clear favorite at +125, reflecting the level of pressure in New York. His rise is the single biggest change from last week.
2. Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins (+175, ~36%)
McDaniel topped last week’s board at +185 (35%). Miami lost again in Week 3, falling 31–21 to Buffalo, and now sits 0–3. While ownership has signaled patience, that doesn’t change the fact that a talented roster is underperforming badly.
The market has shifted him slightly to +175, keeping him as Daboll’s main rival. If the Dolphins don’t win soon, patience in the building may evaporate regardless of what’s being said publicly.
3. Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints (+500, ~17%)
Moore wasn’t in last week’s top five. He enters now after the Saints were crushed 44–13 by Seattle to fall to 0–3. Questions around his game management and team discipline are growing louder. With the Bills up next, things are not about to get easier for Moore.
While Daboll and McDaniel dominate the conversation, Moore’s odds are now +500, making him the most likely of the new entrants to challenge them. His addition knocks Kevin Stefanski and Brian Callahan out of the top five.
4. DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans (+1600, ~6%)
Another new name on the list. Houston lost 17–10 to Jacksonville, making it an 0–3 start with repeated offensive and penalty issues. Ryans has some cushion because the Texans are still rebuilding, but three straight defeats with the same mistakes have started to erode confidence.
His inclusion highlights how the market has tightened around struggling coaches on winless teams.
5. Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers (+3000, ~3%)
Canales was third last week at +400 (20%), but Carolina’s 30–0 win over Atlanta in Week 3 gave him immediate relief. He slides down to fifth place at +3000, reflecting that one victory can cool off hot seat talk quickly.
His drop also shows how much of the market has consolidated around Daboll, McDaniel, and Moore. Unless the Panthers collapse again, he’s less of a short-term firing risk than he was a week ago.
Which Coaches Are Safer Now Than Week 2?
Kevin Stefanski (Browns) was fourth last week at +550 (15%). A win in Week 3 moved him out of the firing line. Brian Callahan (Titans) was fifth at +1700 (5%) but has been pushed aside as Moore and Ryans moved in. Neither coach looks like a frontrunner anymore, at least for this week.
Takeaway After Week 3
This market has become heavily concentrated. Brian Daboll and Mike McDaniel now make up roughly 80% of the probability to be the first head coach fired in 2025. Kellen Moore has surged into third after a blowout loss, while DeMeco Ryans and Dave Canales round out the top five. Coaches like Stefanski and Callahan have fallen off thanks to improved results or the emergence of hotter seats elsewhere.
