When Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles tendon during the second round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs, it was widely assumed that he would miss the entirety of the following season. But early reports on his recovery have been positive, and Polymarket is predicting that Tatum has a great chance of playing in a game at some point during the current campaign.
Jayson Tatum Given 80% Chance Of Playing This Season
The typical recovery time for an Achilles injury varies. When it comes to NBA players who rely on quick movements and fast feet, one full year is the general time frame, though some come back sooner. That would give Tatum a return date somewhere around May 15th, well after the regular season schedule has come to an end.
Celtics fans, do you want Tatum back this season, or should he wait until next year? 👀 pic.twitter.com/gg8LMjFHyI
— Celtics Lead (@CelticsLead) November 23, 2025
But if he happens to have a speedy recovery and returns 10 months after the injury, that would put him back into action in mid-March, perhaps with enough time to help the Boston Celtics reach the postseason. They are currently sitting at 9-8 and in the 10th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, though they have the 6th-best point differential of the 15 teams.
According to the prediction platform Polymarket, Jayson Tatum has an 80% chance of playing in either a regular season or playoff game this year. With the Celtics on the fringe of contention, that figure likely means that a return during the 82-game schedule is highly likely.
Recent Instagram Post Has Increased The Likelihood
Interestingly, when the market opened on November 17th, Tatum was listed with a 52% chance. It reached as high as 84% two days later, which could have been the result of an Instagram post showing him getting workouts in on a basketball court.
Jayson Tatum on Instagram 👀 pic.twitter.com/cbhIBJhTgw
— jb (@lockedupjb) November 21, 2025
It has been the defense that is keeping Boston competitive so far in 2025-26. They rank second in the NBA in points allowed per game, and force more steals than any other team. But their offense ranks just 22nd in points scored per, which is down from the 8th spot that they occupied a season ago.
In 2024-25, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kristaps Porzingis each averaged over 19.5 points per game, This year, Brown is the only player on the roster averaging more than 16.6 points.
