The prediction platform Polymarket currently prices the retirement of LeBron James before the start of the 2026–27 NBA season at roughly 33%.
Polymarket Says LeBron Has 33% Chance Of Retiring After This Season
There are a few recent factors that go into Polymarket’s figure. Thursday night was the end of James’ historic streak of scoring at least 10 points in a game, a mark that he has flirted with in multiple occasions this season. The run lasted 1,297 games, began in January 2007, making it by far the longest streak in league history.
That moment, paired with a reduced offensive role and recurring injury concerns this season, are beginning to feed the narrative. James has played in just 6 of a possible 22 games so far this season while dealing with various ailments, and he missed Friday’s game the night after his streak was streak snapped.
He hasn’t been all that effective when he has been in the lineup, either. After averaging 24+ points in every season since 2004-05, LeBron James is putting up just 14 per this year. In addition to the 8 points on Thursday, he has had single game scoring totals of 13, 11, and 10, all despite still playing 32+ minutes per contest.
James Reportedly “Undecided” On His Future
James is playing on the final year of his current contract, with no player or team option thereafter. There have been multiple reports in recent months saying that the NBA’s all-time leading scorer is “undecided” about playing into next season, all of which is feeding into Polymarket’s figure.
LeBron has MORE Finals appearances than games with single-digit points 🤯
And his streak ended on a game-winning dime. Unreal.
(h/t @statmuse) pic.twitter.com/g2lEEWgHi4
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 5, 2025
When the popular prediction platform released the initial numbers on Wednesday, shares were being bought at a 54% chance of James retiring. It was bought all the way down to 16% overnight, but rose back up to where it stands on Friday night after the end of the scoring streak.
It is unknown how much time James will miss with his current injury. The Lakers are also without fellow superstar Luka Doncic, who flew to Europe to attend the birth of his child, and are trying to maintain their spot in the Western Conference. After Friday’s loss to Boston, Los Angeles has slipped into the 3rd spot in the standings, and are in the middle of playing six of seven games on the road.
