The gold medal game hockey has been waiting 12 years for is set.
On Sunday at 8:10 a.m. ET, the United States and Canada meet at Milano Santagiulia Arena with everything on the line — the first best-on-best Olympic final since Sidney Crosby’s golden goal in Vancouver ended American hearts in overtime back in 2010.
That result, and a 5-2 Canadian win in Salt Lake City in 2002, are the only two data points for what Sunday’s game could look like. Both times, Canada won. The Americans believe this time will be different — and they should — this is arguably the strongest U.S. roster ever assembled for an Olympics.
How They Got Here: The American Machine
Team USA arrives at the final a perfect 5-0, outscoring opponents 24-8. They dispatched Slovakia 6-2 in a semifinal that was over by the first intermission. Jack Hughes (2G in the semi) and Auston Matthews have been clinical, but it’s the efficiency that scares opponents: the U.S. leads the tournament in high-danger conversion rate (22%).
Connor Hellebuyck has been the tournament’s undisputed king in the crease.
His numbers are historic:
- Save Percentage: .947 (1st)
- GAA: 1.23 (1st)
After the Slovakia win, Hellebuyck admitted: “Tonight I got a little bored in there and it cost me a goal.”
Boredom won’t be an issue Sunday.
However, the U.S. is sweating the status of Tage Thompson.
Thompson leads all NHL forwards this season in 90-plus mph shot attempts; his absence would take a massive “power-play weapon” off the ice against a heavy Canadian defense.
How They Got Here: Canada’s Cardiac Kids
Canada did it the hard way—twice.
After surviving a scare against Czechia, they trailed Finland 2-0 late in the semifinals. Nathan MacKinnon proved why he’s a big-game hunter, scoring on the power play with just 35.2 seconds remaining to seal a comeback win.
Despite the drama, the analytics favor the North: Canada outshot Finland 39-17 and controlled 64% of the expected goals (xG).
Connor McDavid has 13 points (2G, 11A) in five games — a new all-time NHL-era Olympic record.
- The “Kid” Factor: 19-year-old Macklin Celebrini (5G, 5A) has been promoted to the top line with McDavid. “He plays like he’s been here for a decade,” McDavid said of the rookie.
- Crosby Watch: Captain Sidney Crosby (lower body) is a game-time decision. Coach Jon Cooper provided a spark of hope: “He’s got a better chance of playing in that gold medal game than he had playing in tonight’s game.”
Key Matchups to Watch
- Velocity vs. Vision: This game features the NHL’s “Speed Kings.” McDavid leads the NHL in max skating speed (24.61 mph) and 20-plus mph speed bursts (494), but he’s chased closely by Nathan MacKinnon (307) and Team USA’s Jack Eichel (267), per NHL EDGE.
- The Great Wall vs. The Power Surge: The U.S. penalty kill is a perfect 15-for-15. Canada’s power play is clicking at 43.75%. Something has to give.
- The Goalie Rematch: Jordan Binnington (.921 save percentage) outplayed Hellebuyck in last February’s 4 Nations Face-Off final. Sunday will test if Hellebuyck can reverse that result.
The Stakes
The U.S. has not won men’s Olympic hockey gold since the Miracle on Ice in 1980. Canada is chasing its third straight Olympic title in tournaments featuring NHL players. History leans North: Canada leads the all-time best-on-best head-to-head 12-4-3 and has won all three previous Olympic gold medal matchups (1920, 2002, 2010).
“It’s so incredible that we’re able to have this experience and have it together [with my brother, Brady],” Matthew Tkachuk said. “We just have to make it the best experience possible and ultimately finish the job and win it… We’re champing at the bit.”
The Odds: Team Canada entered the tournament as the odds-on favorite to win and that hasn’t changed. Canada comes into the gold medal game as a slight favorite (-125 moneyline). The over/under sits at 5.5, with the Under heavily favored (-162), signaling a tactical, low-scoring chess match. The last time these two played for gold in 2010, it went to overtime and ended 3-2.
There is no reason to expect Sunday to be any different. Set your alarm.
