Patrick Ngongba II is questionable for Thursday, and for a Duke team chasing a national title, his injury has wider implications than a 1-vs-16 matchup.
The 6-foot-11, 250-pound sophomore center is the anchor of one of the best defenses in college basketball and a projected first-round NBA pick. Duke coach Jon Scheyer has relied on Ngongba to fill the void left by Khaman Maluach after last year’s run to the Final Four.
While he has responded with the best season of his career, he hasn’t played in over a week.
No. 1 overall seed Duke faces No. 16 seed Siena on Thursday, March 19 at 2:50 p.m. ET in Greenville, South Carolina. Whether Ngongba takes the floor is a question that carries ramifications well beyond the opening round.
Patrick Ngongba’s Foot Injury
This is not Ngongba’s first dance with foot trouble.
A foot injury requiring surgery wiped out his entire senior season of high school, costing him a full year of development before he ever played a college game. He was cleared, enrolled at Duke, and quietly became one of the ACC’s most improved players as a sophomore. Then the foot flared again.
Ngongba sat out Duke’s regular-season finale against North Carolina and arrived at the ACC Tournament on a knee scooter in a walking boot, a sight that sent Duke fans into a collective spiral. He missed all three ACC Tournament games.
The official diagnosis is right foot soreness, not a fracture, which is an encouraging update for his status throughout March Madness. But for a player with a documented surgical history in that same area, “soreness” is a word that warrants watching closely.
What Duke Coach Jon Scheyer Is Saying
Scheyer has been deliberately measured but consistently optimistic.
“He’s doing well,” Scheyer said Sunday after Selection Day. “The thing with this is that you can’t say on Sunday that he’s ready to go on Friday because we’re being cautious with his rest.”
By mid-week, beat reporter Brendan Marks confirmed that Ngongba had taken “a good step with the team’s medical staff” and remained on track to play in the NCAA Tournament.
The direction of every update has pointed the same way. Scheyer’s stated approach from the beginning: rest him through the ACC Tournament and have him ready for “the real thing.”
The expectation is that Ngongba will be available Thursday on a minutes limit. Duke has no incentive to push full starter minutes against a 16-seed, especially given his history with the injury.
A shorter rotation stint — enough to re-establish rhythm without overloading the foot — is the most realistic scenario.
Why It Matters Even Against a 16-Seed
The first-round opponent, Siena, is a 29.5-point underdog. Duke likely wins this game regardless. But that is not the point.
Ngongba averages 10.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.1 blocks per game on 60.2 percent shooting from the field. He’s made a tremendous leap from the 3.9 points and 2.7 rebounds he averaged in limited minutes as a freshman.
His value, however, is better captured in what doesn’t show up in the box score.
Duke ranks second nationally in defensive rating, according to KenPom, and Ngongba is at the core of it. According to Evin Miya’s Box Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating metrics, Ngongba is the third-most valuable defender in the country, behind only Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg and teammate Cameron Boozer. His 7-foot-4 wingspan allows him to disrupt passing lanes, block shots in traffic and clean the glass while anchoring Duke’s defense in the paint.
Ngongba is projected to be a mid first-round pick in the upcoming 2026 NBA Draft. One draft analyst has compared his game to Marc Gasol — a sturdy, intelligent big who initiates offense in the post and makes reads from the perimeter. Getting him back healthy doesn’t just help Duke beat Siena.
It determines how far this team can realistically go in the tournament.
The Broader Injury Picture for Duke
Ngongba is not the only one.
Starting point guard Caleb Foster fractured his foot in the regular-season finale and had surgery. Scheyer has acknowledged Foster is unlikely to return unless Duke advances all the way to the Final Four.
The Blue Devils have managed without both. Cayden Boozer stepped into the starting lineup and went for back-to-back 16-point outings in the ACC Tournament, and Maliq Brown has provided quality frontcourt depth in Ngongba’s place.
But depth filling in for starters is a short-term solution, not a championship formula.
Why Siena Is the Ideal Tune-Up
Siena, to be clear, is not likely to be a real threat to Duke.
The Saints are 23-11, ranked among the four lowest teams in the tournament by KenPom net rating, and a 29.5-point underdog. Their most notable non-conference test all season was a loss to Indiana. Duke is a -20,000 moneyline favorite.
But every minute Ngongba plays Thursday is a minute of tournament conditioning, rhythm and confidence he carries into the weekend. In the second round, Duke will take on the winner of No. 8 Ohio State and No. 9 TCU, and then potentially No. 4 Kansas, No. 2 UConn or No. 3 Michigan State on the road to the Final Four.
That path, which some analysts are calling the toughest region in the bracket, is the real reason his status this week matters.
Why Duke Fans Are Holding Their Breath
Duke wins Thursday whether Ngongba plays or not.
The Siena matchup was never in doubt. But the 20-year-old sophomore center who missed his entire senior year of high school to a foot injury, earned a starting spot on the nation’s top team, and is now fighting through the same body part again deserves more than a box score mention before the tournament begins.
Scheyer has been cautious and optimistic in equal measure. Every medical update has trended in the right direction. The expectation, at this point, is that Ngongba is on the floor Thursday afternoon.
What happens to Duke’s national title odds if he’s not — particularly once the bracket thins out — is a far more uncomfortable question.
