Colin Cowherd has never been afraid to go against the grain, and his 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket is no exception. The Fox Sports host is riding with the Big Ten all the way to Indianapolis, picking Michigan to cut down the nets as national champions while betting on two double-digit seeds to blow up everyone else’s brackets in the first round.
Here’s a breakdown of his picks, the upsets he’s calling, and what the numbers say about his chances of being right.
Cowherd’s Final Four
Cowherd has four teams making it to Indianapolis: Michigan, Arizona, Duke, and Florida.
Michigan is his champion. The Wolverines finished 31-3, won the Big Ten regular season outright, and earned the No. 1 overall seed in the Midwest Region. Their last national title came way back in 1989, and Cowherd is betting that Dusty May’s roster, anchored by future NBA Draft pick Yaxel Lendeborg, is finally good enough to end that drought. Lendeborg is one of the most versatile bigs in the country, a legitimate star who can stuff the stat sheet and make a difference on both ends of the floor.
Duke joins Michigan from the East as the No. 1 overall seed at 32-2, led by Cameron Boozer, arguably the best player in college basketball. Arizona rounds out the field from the West. The Wildcats are one of the most physically imposing teams in the bracket, built around elite defenders at every level.
Meanwhile, defending national champion Florida is his South Region pick, which means he’s fading Houston despite Kelvin Sampson’s crew being one of the most battle-tested programs in the country.
The Michigan State Second-Guess
Made a little correction🤷🏼♂️ we good now. 😬 pic.twitter.com/cIrPONQO9n
— Colin Cowherd (@colincowherd) March 18, 2026
The most revealing moment on Cowherd’s bracket is a visible cross-out in the East Region.
He originally had Michigan State beating UConn in the Sweet 16, then knocking off Duke in the Elite Eight to reach the Final Four. He scratched it out, flipped UConn to win that Sweet 16 matchup, and gave Duke the Elite Eight win over UConn instead.
It’s a small detail that says a lot. Cowherd clearly liked Michigan State enough to pencil them into the Final Four, then pulled back. Whether it’s Duke’s star power or UConn’s tournament pedigree that changed his mind, the hesitation is worth watching.
If MSU does make a run, Cowherd will end up regretting second-guessing himself.
Iowa State Goes Deep, But Not Far Enough
Cowherd has Iowa State reaching the Elite Eight as a No. 2 seed before bowing out.
The Cyclones went 27-7 this season, won their first 16 games, and own wins over Purdue, Houston, Texas Tech, and Kansas.
They’re legitimately dangerous, just not Final Four dangerous in Cowherd’s eyes.
March Madness First Round Upsets
This is where Cowherd earns his bracket stripes. He’s picking two genuine first-round shockers:
No. 13 Hofstra over No. 4 Alabama
The Pride pulling off a double-digit upset over a Power conference program. Hofstra finished 24-10 and brings a high-tempo offense that can punish teams that don’t respect them. Alabama at a 4-seed is beatable, but this is still a call most brackets won’t make.
No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech
The 5-12 upset is the most historically reliable in the tournament. It hits roughly 35% of the time, but you still have to pick it and Cowherd is. Akron went 29-5 this season and is built for one-game elimination basketball. Texas Tech is a dangerous out, making this pick all the more bold.
Can Michigan Actually Win The 2026 National Title?
The case for Michigan is real. Lendeborg gives them a frontcourt weapon that no other team in the bracket can match, and Dusty May has built a roster with size, depth, and experience. The Wolverines haven’t just been good this season — they’ve been dominant.
If there’s a reason to doubt them, it’s momentum. Michigan lost to Purdue in the Big Ten title game just days ago, and their top guard is dealing with an injury. Champions usually arrive in March with their best basketball in front of them. The Wolverines will need to find that gear fast.
Cowherd thinks they will. It’s a big call — and if it lands, it’ll be the signature bracket of his career.
