Barack Obama has been filling out public NCAA Tournament brackets since he entered the White House in 2009, and in 2026, he’s going chalk with a twist. The former president has Arizona cutting down the nets in Indianapolis, beating Duke in a No. 1 vs. No. 1 championship game that pits two of college basketball’s blue bloods against each other on the sport’s biggest stage.
Here’s a breakdown of his picks, his notable upsets, and why Arizona is both the right and risky call.
Obama’s Final Four
Obama’s Final Four is: Arizona, Duke, Illinois, and Iowa State.
The championship game is Arizona over Duke in what would be one of the most marquee title games in recent memory.
Duke finished 32-2 and won a second straight conference title, with freshman Cameron Boozer entering the tournament averaging 22.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. Arizona matched that 32-2 record, won the Big 12 regular season and tournament titles, and comes in as the betting favorite to win it all. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Wildcats are +330 to cut down the nets on April 6.
Illinois is Obama’s pick out of the South as a No. 3 seed, beating Florida in the Elite Eight to reach Indianapolis. Iowa State rounds out the Final Four from the Midwest as a No. 2 seed, before falling to Arizona in the semifinals.
Barack Obama's bracket!
Arizona wins it all 🏆
USF > Louisville 🔥
Illinois eliminates Florida 👀#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/us123NZv56— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 18, 2026
Obama’s Surprises Come In The Elite Eight
The most eyebrow-raising picks on Obama’s sheet are Iowa State over Michigan and Illinois eliminating Florida in the Elite Eight.
The defending national champion Gators are a No. 1 seed and one of the tournament favorites. Sending them home before the Final Four is a genuine contrarian call. The Illini finished 24-8 and fourth in the Big Ten, earning a 3-seed. Obama is betting their experience and toughness outweighs the seed difference when it matters most.
It’s the kind of pick that either looks brilliant or costs you your entire bracket by the second week.
Michigan, on the other hand, is the No. 1 overall seed and the favorite to win the whole tournament. Obama has Iowa State, a No. 2 seed, knocking them out before the Final Four.
The Case for Arizona
The case for Arizona is hard to dismiss.
Every rotational player who averages 20 minutes or more scores at least 9 points per game, and every one of them has scored 20 or more at least once this season. The Wildcats dominated the Big 12, arguably the toughest conference in basketball, and their two losses came by a combined seven points.
The knock on Arizona is its postseason history under Lloyd. The Wildcats have not advanced to a regional final since losing to Wisconsin in 2015, and are 0-3 in the regional semifinals under Lloyd, crashing out to Houston, Princeton, and Clemson in prior years.
Obama is betting that streak ends this spring.
A Conservative Bracket, With Two Exceptions
Obama’s bracket is short on first-round upsets. The lowest-seeded teams he has advancing past the first round are No. 11 South Florida, No. 10 Missouri, and No. 10 UCF. His Sweet 16 is packed with 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds.
That makes his two genuine upset picks stand out even more:
No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville: A double-digit seed over a Power conference program is always a statement. Obama likes the Bulls enough to pencil them into the second round.
No. 10 UCF over No. 7 UCLA: UCF pulled off a similar run in last year’s tournament and Obama is going back to that well. The Knights have the guard play to pull it off.
Obama’s Track Record
The tradition started when Obama was still in office, and the brackets have become a cultural phenomenon of their own. He correctly predicted the NCAA Tournament winner twice: North Carolina in 2009 and again in 2017. Since then, his champion picks have a spotty record, and last year he had Duke, who was ousted in the Final Four.
Arizona’s last national title came in 1997. If Obama’s pick lands, it ends a 29-year drought and gives the former president his best bracket call in nearly a decade.
