Athlon Sports analyst Luke Easterling projects the Baltimore Ravens to draft Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy – described as an ‘explosive playmaker’ – with the 29th overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
The pick is framed as Baltimore’s long-term answer to replacing Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens), who turns 33 during a potential 2026 postseason run. Henry is under contract through 2027, but the succession clock is already ticking.
Ahmad Hardy Posted the Third-Best Rushing Game in SEC History
Hardy, 20, did not ease into SEC competition – he torched it. The 5-foot-10, 206-pound back rushed for 1,649 yards and 16 touchdowns in his debut season at Missouri (transferred from Louisiana-Monroe), averaging a staggering 6.5 yards per carry.
His signature moment: a 300-yard, three-touchdown demolition of Mississippi State in a 49-27 win – the third-best single-game rushing performance in SEC history.
He earned consensus All-American, SEC Newcomer of the Year, and First-Team All-SEC honors in the same breath. One anonymous SEC coach told Athlon Sports bluntly: “[Ahmad Hardy] is one of the top five running backs in college football in the last decade. That kid is special.”
The one variable Easterling flags immediately: Hardy is recovering from a gunshot wound suffered earlier in 2026. His 2027 draft stock – and this entire projection – hinges on a full return to form.
Why Baltimore Is the Right Landing Spot for Hardy
The Ravens run the NFL’s most ground-dependent offensive scheme around Lamar Jackson. They do not draft running backs to hold clipboards – they draft them to carry volume.
Hardy’s profile maps cleanly onto what Baltimore deploys: a one-cut downhill runner with the athleticism to break angles in zone schemes and the receiving ability to stay on the field in passing situations.
At 6.5 yards per carry, Hardy averaged more per touch in the SEC than Henry averaged in the NFL in 2025 (5.2 YPC). That gap will compress at the next level – it always does – but the underlying movement skills are legitimate. Hardy is not a small-school novelty. He just posted the third-best rushing performance in SEC history against Power Four competition.
Baltimore also has the draft capital and positional need to justify a first-round running back. Earlier mocks linked the Ravens to Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton in a similar role – the organizational pattern of identifying a premium back in the mid-to-late first round is consistent regardless of which name leads the projection.
Honest caveat: Hardy’s recovery timeline from his gunshot wound is genuinely unknown. Easterling acknowledges this directly. If Hardy misses significant 2026 college game time, his draft stock slides, his film sample shrinks, and this entire projection unravels before Baltimore ever submits a card.
Derrick Henry’s Future in Baltimore: The Clock Is Ticking
Henry’s 2025 numbers were legitimately elite – 1,595 rushing yards, 16 touchdowns, 5.2 yards per carry. His touchdown total was the second-highest of his career. His yards per carry ranked third-best. By every statistical measure, the 32-year-old is not declining yet.
But context matters. Henry is the oldest starting running back in the NFL – only Ameer Abdullah (who has started four games since 2018) is older among active backs. Running backs at Henry’s carry volume historically hit a wall fast. Henry has surpassed 2,000 regular-season carries.
Henry told reporters in January: “I’m motivated more than ever. I really appreciated this year and how it all went down, because it motivated me to be ready to get back next year and work as hard as I can in the offseason to be better. I don’t have a timeline. I’m just ready to go.” Respect the mentality. But the Ravens cannot build a 2028 offense around motivation alone. The succession plan needs to start now – not after the first sign of decline.
Fantasy and Betting Implications for Ravens Backers
For 2026 fantasy purposes, Henry remains an RB1 in every format. His snap share, touchdown equity, and goal-line role are untouched by a projection two drafts away.
Redraft managers should not flinch. If anything, a healthy Hardy pushes Henry’s 2027 workload down – which reduces injury exposure and could actually extend his fantasy-relevant window.
Dynasty managers need to think differently. Hardy – if healthy and declared for the 2027 draft – immediately enters the conversation as a top-five dynasty rookie back.
A consensus All-American with a 6.5 YPC average, a historic single-game performance, and a projected landing spot in one of the NFL’s best rushing offenses? That profile carries first-round dynasty rookie pick value. Move early on that price before the injury recovery narrative resolves positively and his ADP craters upward.
On the futures side, Baltimore’s rushing offense props for 2026 are worth monitoring. Henry at peak volume in an offense built around Lamar Jackson supports team rushing yards overs aggressively. Athlon Sports’ full 2027 draft projection reinforces that Baltimore views the run game as a non-negotiable identity – not a scheme option.
The directional call: Stash Hardy in dynasty leagues now at a discount, before his recovery timeline becomes public knowledge and drives his price up. For 2026 redraft and season-long betting, Henry is the play – back his rushing yards and touchdowns with confidence. The succession narrative does not hurt him this year. It just confirms Baltimore knows what it has.
Bottom Line
The Ravens drafting Ahmad Hardy in the first round of the 2027 NFL Draft is a credible, well-supported projection – not a speculative hot take. Hardy’s college production is historically elite, his fit in Baltimore’s scheme is obvious, and Henry’s age makes the succession timeline urgent rather than theoretical.
The recovery from injury is the single variable that could derail everything. Watch Hardy’s 2026 season availability closely. If he plays and produces, this pick lands near the top of every Ravens mock draft by February 2027.
