Aaron Rodgers and the Packers Find Themselves in Unprecedented Underdog Territory Against the Bills

The Green Bay Packers were expected to take a step back after losing Davante Adams in the offseason, but it was hard to envision a fall from grace this drastic. After starting the season 3-1, the Packers have lost three straight games to the New York Giants, New York Jets, and Washington Commanders, and they find themselves 2.5 games back of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North standings.

It doesn’t get much easier for Green Bay, either, as it now has to travel to upstate New York for a matchup against the 5-1 Buffalo Bills this Sunday. The Packers are set as 10.5-point underdogs in the game, which will make Aaron Rodgers the biggest underdog of his NFL career.

Aaron Rodgers is in unfamiliar territory with the Packers

Aaron Rodgers sits on the bench during a game against the Commanders.
Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers looks on from the bench during a game against the Washington Commanders | Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

We’re not used to seeing a Rodgers-led Packers team with a losing record this late into the season. The Packers have now lost three straight games to fall to 3-4 on the year. For reference, Green Bay hasn’t lost more than four games over an entire season since 2018.

This isn’t a fluke, either. Green Bay is simply a mediocre football team right now. The Packers currently rank 23rd in the NFL in points per game (18.3), 25th in third-down conversion rate (35.4%), 25th in defensive DVOA, and 20th in overall DVOA. The offense has managed just 270.3 yards per game over the last three losses.

Over the last three seasons, we’ve seen Rodgers put up 300 yards of offense himself on a regular basis. Now, the Packers can’t reach 300 yards as a team. The Adams loss has hurt even more than expected, the offense still doesn’t have an identity, and the talented defense hasn’t lived up to expectations.

This team, as it’s currently performing, is one of the worst Packers teams of the Rodgers era, and we’re seeing that in the spread this week.

Aaron Rodgers is the biggest underdog of his career against the Bills

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Just as we’re not used to seeing the Packers struggle, we’re also not used to seeing Rodgers as an underdog. This week, though, the Packers are 10.5-point underdogs against the Bills. If that spread holds, it will be the first time Rodgers will play as a double-digit underdog in his NFL career, per a tweet from Ben Fawkes of VSiN.

The Packers desperately need to get this train back on the tracks if they want to make a run at the playoffs this year, but that doesn’t look as if it’ll happen this week against the far superior Bills.

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