2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds: Joey Chestnut Returns as Heavy Favorite

Joey Chestnut returns to Coney Island on July 4 as a -1600 favorite in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. We break down the odds, props, and contenders to watch.

The most iconic eating competition in the world returns to Coney Island on the Fourth of July, and all eyes are on a familiar face: Joey Chestnut, the 16-time Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest champion, who’s back after a one-year absence.

Chestnut, widely regarded as the GOAT of competitive eating, was sidelined in 2023 due to a sponsorship conflict involving a plant-based food company. But with the dispute behind him, he enters this year’s event with -1600 odds to win, an implied win probability of 94.1%.

It’s a number that reflects both his dominance and the gap between him and the rest of the field.

Remember that time Joey Chestnut downed 63 hot dog and one protester?

Legend. ✅pic.twitter.com/dmvFBoTP1h

— John Ewing (@johnewing) July 3, 2025

Chestnut’s Dynasty: 16 Wins in 18 Contests

Since 2007, Chestnut has taken home the title in 16 of the last 18 competitions, only falling short in 2007, 2008, and 2015. He owns the all-time contest record of 76 hot dogs in 10 minutes (set in 2021), and even though he’s seen a slight dip in recent years, his consistency remains unmatched.

• 2022: 63 hot dogs

• 2023: Did not compete

• 2021: 76 hot dogs (record)

• 2020: 75 hot dogs

His career win rate of 84.2% speaks volumes, and so does the public sentiment: Chestnut has pulled in 65.4% of all bets and a whopping 86.8% of the money wagered in this year’s contest.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds

Best Bets and Props for July 4, 2024

Here are the top betting options for this year’s contest, including total dogs eaten and potential contenders behind Chestnut.

Joey Chestnut to Win: -1600

• 16-time champion

• Has never lost at Coney Island when healthy since 2015

• Returns after 2023 absence with motivation to reassert dominance

Chestnut Over/Under 71.5 Hot Dogs: -115 Both Sides

• Only four times in 19 career contests has he cleared 71.5

• Has eaten 63 and 62 dogs in his last two appearances

• 69.9% of the handle is still on the Over, despite the trend suggesting the Under may hold more value

Patrick Bertoletti to Win: +1000 to +1400 (varies by book)

• 2023 winner in Chestnut’s absence (58 hot dogs)

• Has garnered 11.5% of bets, but only 6.9% of handle

• More likely to contend for second place

“Joey Chestnut is a massive favorite, which has led bettors to wager on other competitors. Patrick Bertoletti winning is the worst result for the sportsbook. Chestnut’s under hot dogs eaten is the most popular market.”

– Halvor Egeland, Trading Strategy Manager, BetMGM pic.twitter.com/YYA2fctQWP

— John Ewing (@johnewing) July 3, 2025

Top Contenders for Second Place:

• James Webb

• Nick Wehry
  These two will likely battle with Bertoletti for podium spots, with props available in some markets for “Top 3 Finish” or “Head-to-Head Matchups.”

Women’s Contest: Miki Sudo’s Reign Continues

If Chestnut is the king, Miki Sudo is the undisputed queen of competitive eating.

• -2500 to win, making her an even bigger favorite than Chestnut

• Holds the women’s world record of 51 dogs (set in 2023)

• Has won every contest she’s competed in since 2014

• Missed only the 2021 contest due to pregnancy

Oddsmakers aren’t even offering outright winner odds in most books — that’s how far ahead of the field she is.

Miki Sudo Over/Under Hot Dogs: Prop Markets Available

• Some books offer totals in the 40.5–45.5 range

• Strong recent form and deep experience make her a reliable pick for the Over

Miki Sudo’s hot dogs eaten at @BetMGM

▪️ OVER 44.5 -125
▪️ UNDER 44.5 -105

99% of money is on Sudo OVER 44.5 dogs eaten.

Sudo ate 51 franks in 2024 – new women’s record pic.twitter.com/50WADcDmDk

— John Ewing (@johnewing) July 3, 2025

Final Thoughts

Whether you’re tuning in for the spectacle, the stomach-turning athleticism, or just to see if Joey Chestnut can reclaim his throne, Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest remains one of America’s most bizarre and beloved sporting traditions.

With heavy favorites like Chestnut and Sudo returning to center stage, the real betting value may lie in prop markets and placement bets, especially with second-tier contenders on the men’s side.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2024 Best Bets Recap

• Joey Chestnut to Win (-1600)

• Chestnut Under 71.5 Hot Dogs (-115)

• Patrick Bertoletti to Finish Top 3

• Miki Sudo to Win (-2500)

• Miki Sudo Over 44.5 Hot Dogs (if available)

Set your alarms — the women’s contest begins at 10:45 a.m. ET, followed by the men’s event. Coney Island once again becomes the center of the sports world, one bite at a time.