2025 NBA Playoffs Preview: Can The Magic Pull Off A Miracle Over The Celtics?

Every season, there are a couple of series featuring a David and Goliath dynamic in the NBA Playoffs. This year, one of those matchups comes via the second-seeded Boston Celtics facing the seventh-seeded Orlando Magic.

If the Magic managed to beat the Celtics, it would be the greatest upset in playoff history with regards to the difference between each team’s net rating. When the No. 8 Golden State Warriors beat the No. 1 Dallas Mavericks in 2007, Golden State’s net rating was 8.3 points lower than the Mavericks’. Here, the Magic trail the Celtics by 9.5 points.

But is there a realistic pathway for the Magic to even pull this off?

The Numbers

Boston Celtics

Record: 61-21, No. 2 seed

• Net Rating: second (plus-9.4)
• Offensive Rating: second (119.5)
• Defensive Rating: fourth (110.1)

Orlando Magic 

Record: 41-41, No. 7 seed

• Net Rating: 17th (minus-0.2)
• Offensive Rating: 27th (108.9)
• Defensive Rating: second(109.1)

The Blueprint For A Magic Upset

The argument for the Celtics winning this series is obvious. Like the Magic, they have one of the NBA’s best defenses. But unlike the Magic, they also have an elite offense. Orlando may be able to hang with the Celtics on one end of the court, but it’s completely outclassed on the other side of the ball.

Yet just because it’s easier to come up with a blueprint for the Celtics winning doesn’t mean one doesn’t also exist for the Magic. While they’ve struggled to stay healthy most of the season, they’ve recently found a groove and won 13 of their last 19 games, including Tuesday’s Play-In Tournament victory over the Atlanta Hawks.

During this stretch, the Magic have stumbled on a pair of potent lineups. The first features Cole Anthony, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. (plus-14.3 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass), and the other has Cory Joseph in place of Anthony (plus-10.2). With these lineups, the Magic have identified a pair of five-man units maintaining their brilliant defense and creating a passable offense.

The bedrock of the Celtics’ offense starts with their immense ball-handling depth (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Payton Pritchard). They hunt a weaker defender, force help to collapse after beating that weaker defender off the dribble and spray a kick-out pass to an open 3-point shooter.

The Magic have very few players to actually hunt. Their point-of-attack defense is among the best in the league. They’re tied for first with the Houston Rockets in fewest opponent assists per 100 possessions (23.6). Assists usually come after a breakdown at the point-of-attack because defenses are forced to bring extra help, which creates open layups and 3-point attempts. So, generally speaking, the fewer assists a team gives up, the better it is at defending on the ball.

In theory, the Magic can disrupt the Celtics’ offensive flow by not allowing them to launch as many threes as they are accustomed to taking. Combine that with the success they’ve had with guys like Anthony and Joseph, and the Magic may be able to score enough points to get across the finish line.

The Celtics’ X Factor: Jayson Tatum

In the past, the Celtics have struggled against teams like the Miami Heat that can really defend at the point-of-attack and disrupt their offensive process. As their best player, it’s up to Jayson Tatum to make sure the Celtics don’t fall into old habits and settle for contested midrange jumpers. Tatum has grown a great deal as a playmaker over the last few years and he’ll need all that growth to keep Boston’s offense from getting sticky against one of the NBA’s best defenses.

The Magic’s X Factor: Cole Anthony

I’ve been advocating for Anthony since Banchero went down with an oblique injury back in late October. Early in the season, though, Anthony fell out of the rotation because his size (6 feet 3 inches) didn’t align with the Magic’s defensive philosophy and he was struggling on offense.

However, injuries have given him a second chance and he’s made the most of his opportunity. Since Feb. 1, he’s averaging 11.4 points and 3.1 assists on 57.9 percent true shooting. He was also electric during Orlando’s Play-In win over the Hawks, dropping 26 points and six assists in just over 20 minutes of action. Anthony is easily the Magic’s third-best offensive player after Wagner and Banchero. They’ll need him to be at his best if they hope to score enough points and win this series.

Prediction: Celtics In Five

I think the Magic’s defensive style is stifling enough that they’ll be able to muck up some games and steal a win from the Celtics. But Boston is just too good on both sides of the ball for Orlando to have any real chance, meaning a gentleman’s sweep is likely in its future.