Best bets for US Open third round: Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Fritz highlight our best bets for the US Open Men’s Third Round of play in Flushing.
The 2025 US Open has already given us no shortage of thrilling moments, and as the third round gets underway, the stakes are climbing even higher. Friday’s slate is highlighted by a mix of established champions and rising contenders, each presenting unique opportunities in the betting markets.
From Carlos Alcaraz’s pursuit of another major run to Novak Djokovic’s bid for one more New York crown, the board is rich with matchups that blend star power with tactical value. Add in players like Alexander Zverev, who enters with renewed focus, and Taylor Fritz, a home favorite with momentum, and bettors have a diverse set of angles to target.
With form trends, head-to-head records, and predictive modeling all pointing toward a handful of sharp plays, these are the bets worth circling on Day 5.
2025 US Open Men’s Third Round Best Bets
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Luciano Darderi — Alcaraz to win 3–1 (+350)
-
Alcaraz has been dominant in the first two rounds, dispatching opponents handily despite a new hairstyle stealing headlines. After surviving a tough opener against Opelka, he handed Bellucci just four total games in Round 2.
-
While Darderi (No. 34) is cruising through this tournament’s early stages and brings confidence, his relative inexperience at this level suggests he may steal a set, making the 3–1 set line a sharp value play. Novak Djokovic vs. Cam Norrie, Djokovic to win 3–0 (–135)
Carlos Alcaraz debuting a new pink kit for his 3rd round match at the U.S. Open.
Hi, Ken. 💖
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) August 29, 2025
Novak Djokovic vs. Cam Norrie — Djokovic to Win 3–0 (–135)
-
Djokovic appears focused and formidable, eyeing possibly his final US Open title. He’s dropped just one set combined through early rounds and will face Norrie, whom he’s defeated in all six prior meetings, including a Wimbledon blowout (6‑2, 6‑3, 6‑2).
-
This matchup should follow a familiar script, with Djokovic reinforcing dominance and avoiding extended play. 3–0 is the logical outcome.
R3 💪 pic.twitter.com/W7AcOqV6eY
— Novak Djokovic (@DjokerNole) August 28, 2025
Taylor Fritz vs. Jerome Kym — First Set Over 9.5 Games (–115)
-
Fritz, last year’s finalist, has had slow starts—dropping a set in both prior matches before accelerating.
-
Against Kym, that pattern gives a strong edge for the first set to exceed 9.5 games. A gritty opener is highly probable.
Alexander Zverev vs. Félix Auger-Aliassime — Zverev –1.5 Sets
- Predictive models give Zverev a 76% win probability, with a 61% chance for the match staying under 39.5 games. Backing Zverev to take the match in straight sets offers strong upside amid his current mental reset and historic dominance in this rivalry.
| Matchup | Bet Type | Pick / Odds | Why It Works |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alcaraz vs. Darderi | Set Score | Alcaraz 3–1 (+350) | Power favorite likely gives up set amid testing matchup. |
| Djokovic vs. Norrie | Set Score | Djokovic 3–0 (–135) | Straightforward sweep expected from dominant history and form. |
| Zverev vs. Auger-Aliassime | Set Handicap | Zverev –1.5 Sets | High win probability and first-set control from Zverev modeling. |
| Fritz vs. Kym | Game Total (1st Set) | Over 9.5 Games (–115) | Fritz’ slow starts practically demand a longer opener. |
Alexander Zverev shines under the New York City lights with a straight set win 🌃#USOpen pic.twitter.com/1bf30bcHv3
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) August 27, 2025
-
Alcaraz 3–1: Balances dominance with value—targets a more profitable outcome than a typical moneyline.
-
Djokovic 3–0: A high-confidence bet based on proven superiority and match context.
-
Zverev –1.5 Sets: Stats-backed edge with favorable modeling and mental tone.
-
Fritz Over 9.5 First Set Games: Leverages known tendencies for initial match rust.
We’re coming off an excellent Thursday of plays at the US Open on both the Men’s and Women’s side, and Friday could be much of the same. Friday’s third-round action at the 2025 US Open delivers one of the best slates for bettors so far, with multiple value plays across the board. Among today’s US Open betting picks, Carlos Alcaraz 3–1 offers plus-money appeal for those expecting a four-set victory, while Novak Djokovic 3–0 remains the most reliable play thanks to his dominant head-to-head history over Cam Norrie.
Alexander Zverev –1.5 sets emerges as a sharp handicap backed by predictive data, and Taylor Fritz over 9.5 first-set games taps into a recurring trend that continues to pay. These tennis best bets strike a balance between safe anchors and value-driven props, making them the ideal combination for those seeking profitable edges. With star power on display and data aligning with form, today’s US Open predictions and best bets provide strong opportunities for confident wagers heading into the weekend.
