The NBA is a complicated league. So much so that every year, thousands of people (including myself) dedicate thousands of hours to analyzing film and data in an attempt to figure out this beautiful game.
However, it can also be a simple thing. There are three variables that can give teams a huge edge: size, spacing and physicality. Size allows them to play a variety of coverages, put more pressure on the rim (the most important real estate on the floor) and protect the paint. Spacing gives them more room to operate offensively and grants them access to the great equalizer, the 3-point shot. And physicality helps them win the rebounding battle.
But how do we quantify these variables? Admittedly, a lot of nuance goes into discussing all three categories. Fortunately, there are less complicated ways to approximate these facets of the game.
Our Method
To measure size, we are going to look at the average wingspan of each team’s roster from last season.* We are using wingspan instead of height because wingspan helps players both vertically and horizontally. Besides, our research shows there is a nearly moderate correlation between wingspan and height (r = 0.38).
For spacing, we pulled up data on 3-point makes, 3-point attempts and 3-point percentage. However, we will focus on 3-point attempts, as teams with great shooters generally allow their players to take more 3-pointers — as evidenced by the very strong correlation between 3-point makes and 3-point attempts (r = 0.91).
Lastly, for physicality, we will focus on weight, since burlier guys will tend to have more physical strength, which helps when battling for position inside. With this all established, let’s look at what we’ve found.
*For wingspan and weight, we looked at each team’s roster as of the final day of the regular season. For 3-point attempts, we look at season-long totals, which does not account for any midseason trades that took place.
Size
As I mentioned earlier, we looked at the average wingspan of every player on each team’s 2024-25 roster. This comes with some drawbacks, as each team’s roster will look a little bit different than it did last year (although, since there wasn’t as much roster turnover as previously anticipated, this won’t damage our analysis too much).
Plus, it doesn’t account for how many minutes each player will contribute to their team. That means if a team had a bunch of players with shorter wingspans on their roster but not in the primary rotation, they would get penalized by this analysis. So, keep that in mind when interpreting these findings.
Spacing
As we saw with the 2022-23 Miami Heat, shooting the three at a high level gives teams a chance against any opponent. And like we said earlier, coaches let good shooters take a lot of threes. In the chart below, you can find the total 3-point attempts taken by each team last year.
I would not expect the Denver Nuggets to be last in 3-point attempts next season. They parted ways with Russell Westbrook, traded Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson (that’s basically a wash), signed Tim Hardaway Jr. (79th percentile 3-point volume last season, per Dunks & Threes) and (hopefully) will be giving more minutes to Julian Strawther (70th percentile). This should boost their already-high-powered offense (fourth in offensive rating) to even greater heights.
A spike in 3-point volume could also be argued for the Orlando Magic (added Desmond Bane, Tyus Jones and Jase Richardson), Houston Rockets (added Kevin Durant and Dorian Finney-Smith while Reed Sheppard figures to have a larger role) and Atlanta Hawks (added Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kennard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker).
I hate to keep pooh-poohing on the Celtics but things don’t look great here either. Yes, they added Simons (93rd percentile 3-point volume) but won’t have four of their top-eight volume shooters from 2024-25 next year.
Physicality
This component is probably my favorite because you hardly ever see weight cited when talking about hoops. Here is the average weight of every team from last year.
Four of the top-five teams in average weight finished among the top 10 in rebounding percentage last season — adding credence to the idea weight plays a part in physicality.
Funny enough, the Utah Jazz somehow managed to get bigger this offseason. They shed lightweights like Sexton (190 pounds) and Jordan Clarkson (194) while trading for the second-heaviest player in the Association (Jusuf Nurkic, 290).
The Los Angeles Clippers (Brook Lopez, 282), New York Knicks (Guerschon Yabusele, 265) and Denver Nuggets (Jonas Valanciunas, 265) all added players who ranked in the top 20 in weight last season. So, expect to see all them rise up the physicality ranks next year.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are bringing back largely the same team as their title-winning one from last season, meaning physicality will continue to be a weakness for them. Let’s see if it finally catches up to them in 2025-26.
Main Takeaways
Depending on one’s perspective, there are numerous angles to take with this information. Here’s what really stood out to me after consuming all of this.
Firstly, the Nuggets are going to be really freaking good. Not only do they still tout the best player on Earth but they also improved in all three categories. The opposite looks to be true for the Celtics, which regressed in those areas.
Secondly, while they may have playoff aspirations internally, I don’t foresee the New Orleans Pelicans or Sacramento Kings being very good this year. Neither of them finished among the top 10 in any of these stats and did basically nothing to improve their ranking this offseason. The Miami Heat are in the same boat (outside the top 10 in these stats) but I feel a little better about them because they added Norman Powell (81st percentile 3-point volume).
Lastly, the Milwaukee Bucks are another team to not finish among the top 10 in these categories. I’ve been pretty high on them over the summer but seeing this does cause some hesitation. They lost a major power puncher in Lopez (fifth in weight last season) and one of the best shooters in basketball in Damian Lillard (91st percentile 3-point volume). But they also brought in a nice group of guys who should enhance their size and spacing (Myles Turner, Amir Coffey, Gary Harris and Cole Anthony).
All data for this article was pulled by Fran Huzjan (@FHuzjan on Twitter).Â
