Week 5 of the college football season kicks off on Saturday, and there are a few key matchups that could shape the playoff picture.
No. 21 USC will head to Bloomington for a clash versus No. 23 Illinois, while No. 13 Ole Miss is set to host No. 4 LSU. Later in the evening, No. 6 Oregon will try to remain undefeated on the road against No. 3 Penn State in what promises to be one of the best Big Ten games of the season, and No. 5 Georgia will renew its rivalry at home versus No. 17 Alabama.
Below, we’ll break down some of the best upset picks of the week and uncover which underdogs have the best chance of winning on Saturday.
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Wake Forest (+437) versus Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech will try to remain undefeated on the road against ACC rival Wake Forest this week. The Yellow Jackets have raced out to a 4-0 start, including wins over Colorado and No. 12 Clemson. Haynes King and Jamal Haynes spearhead the nation’s 14th-best rushing offense while former Penn transfer Malachi Mosley has been a source of big plays in the run game. King threw for his first two touchdowns of the season last week against Temple and has already compiled two 100-yard rushing games through three contests.
Wake Forest dropped its first game of the season last time out against NC State, but there have been some positives brewing for the Demon Deacons.
Senior QB Robbie Ashford has shown flashes under center but needs to take better care of the football for Wake Forest to pull off the upset. Look out for 5-foot-7 redshirt freshman receiver Chris Barnes, who has 12 catches for 248 yards in his first three games. Barnes can stretch the field and has had multiple big plays of late, including a catch of 60 yards or more in each of the past two games.
With Wake Forest coming off a bye, this could be an underrated spot for an upset as ACC play swings into action.
Tulsa (+534) versus Tulane
Tulsa got back on the winning track last week with a much-needed 19-12 win over Oklahoma State. Redshirt freshman Baylor Hanes continued to show promise under center, throwing for 219 yards and a touchdown in the win. Dominic Richardson rushed 31 times for 146 yards, helping the Golden Hurricane escape with their first road win on the season.
On the other hand, Tulane was romped 45-10 by Ole Miss last week. Jake Retzlaff failed to complete any of his first nine passes and finished 5-of-17 for just 56 yards in the blowout loss.
Tulane is among the leaders to represent the Group of Five teams in the College Football Playoff, but that could change this week with a loss to Tulane. The Golden Hurricanes are expected to be among the top contenders in the AAC, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they pull off the upset at home in this one, especially after Ole Miss rushed for 241 yards on the Green Wave defense last week.
Mississippi State (+230) versus No. 15 Tennessee
Mississippi State will be looking for its second ranked win of the season on Saturday when it hosts No. 15 Tennessee.
The Volunteers are led by Appalachian State and UCLA transfer Joey Aguilar, who ranks in the top-20 in the nation in passing yards per game. Aguilar has thrown for 1,124 yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions through three games while taking only one sack. Tennessee’s only loss of the season came in overtime against Georgia, and most college football fans outside of Starkville are expecting this game to turn into a blowout.
Mississippi State has the 13th-ranked pass defense in the country, and quarterback Blake Shapen has proven that he can sling it when given the opportunity. The senior threw for 279 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 24-20 upset victory over No. 12 Arizona State earlier this month. Shapen has thrown for 884 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions through four games, with most of that production coming by way of his top two receivers, Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans III, who have a combined 581 receiving yards this season.
The real story here is the Bulldogs’ defense, which ranks 16th in the country in scoring defense and has not allowed more than 20 points in a game this season. Mississippi State has forced seven turnovers and has limited opposing offenses to converting on just 31.5% of their third downs.
