Predicting anytime goalscorers in normal time is hard enough, backing players specifically brought on for penalty shootouts is proving to be a certified World Cup bankroll killer.
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Avoid Bets On Substitutes For Penalty Shootouts
Data provided by Opta shows a brutal trend for players who are subbed on after the 115th minute specifically to take a spot-kick in major international tournaments.
Out of ten notable instances, a staggering eight players failed to convert their penalties, proving that coming off the bench cold into a high-pressure shootout is a recipe for disaster.
The curse spans decades, starting with Jamie Carragher missing for England against Portugal in 2006, followed by Simone Zaza’s infamous miss for Italy against Germany in 2016.
The Euro 2020 final saw both Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho miss after late entries, while Rodri also missed against Switzerland that same summer.
The 2022 World Cup saw Pablo Sarabia (Spain) and Badr Benoun (Morocco) flub their lines.
The trend has continued directly into the 2026 World Cup, where Paraguay’s Fabián Balbuena missed his crucial penalty against Germany after a late introduction.
Only Paulo Dybala (2022) and Zeki Amdouni (2024) bucked the trend, making these cold substitutes an absolute avoid for savvy bettors.
Eight of the last 10 players introduced after the 115th minute before a World Cup or Euros penalty shootout have missed from the spot. 😬
Is bringing on a substitute just to take a penalty actually worth it? pic.twitter.com/p7J8kpfAhM
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) June 30, 2026
World Cup 2026 Penalty Shootouts
The 2026 tournament has already been defined by intense penalty drama, showcasing how brutal 12 yards can be.
The epic Round of 32 clash between the Netherlands and Morocco went the distance after a grueling 1-1 draw.
In that shootout, immense pressure got the better of the players, resulting in three costly misses that ultimately sent the Dutch side packing as Morocco’s keeper took center stage.
Meanwhile, Germany’s shocking exit against Paraguay shattered their historically flawless shootout record.
In that matchup, the Germans uncharacteristically missed three spot-kicks, opening the door for the South Americans to pull off a historic upset.
Across just these two marquee 2026 shootouts, a combined 10 penalties were missed or saved.
With the pressure magnified to historic levels in North America, betting on a penalty shootout to feature multiple misses is becoming one of the smartest tournament angles available.
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