Fantasy Basketball 2025: Biggest Sleepers Who Could Outperform Their ADP

The fantasy basketball season is nearly upon us. With just two weeks before the regular season tips off, many players are still preparing for the draft. League titles are often won by identifying value beyond the early rounds and this year’s crop of overlooked players offers plenty of upside for managers who can see beyond the box score. Below, we’ll break down some of the biggest fantasy sleepers and explain why they could outperform their average draft position heading into the 2025-26 season.

Keon Ellis, PG/SG —  Sacramento Kings

Keon Ellis has a chance to outperform his ADP by a wide margin, thanks to his overall efficiency on offense and his ability to contribute steals and blocks from the point guard spot. 

Ellis is a career 43% shooter from beyond the arc and has improved his efficiency from the field and the free throw line in each of the past two seasons. He set career-highs across the board last season with 8.3 points to go along with 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocks per game.

Ellis has never had a usage rate over 12.7% but that number could rise this year, especially if one of his backcourt mates gets injured. 

Zach LaVine played 74 games last season but had played in 67 games or fewer in seven of the previous eight seasons. The last two times Lavine played more than 70 games in a season, he followed that up by playing fewer than 50 games the following year. 

Isaiah Jackson, C — Indiana Pacers

With Myles Turner gone, the Indiana Pacers figure to have a platoon at center featuring Isaiah Jackson and Jay Huff. While Huff can stretch the floor and provide some defensive upside, Jackson has proven that he can be serviceable as a starter. 

In 2023-24, he averaged 13.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, and 0.7 steals per game in three games as a starter. He only averaged 27.7 minutes per game during that span and should be in line for similar minutes if he can hold off Huff as the starter. 

While it’s a small sample size, those numbers would make him an easy bet to outperform his ADP (139.1), which has him being drafted in the 12th round. 

A former first-round pick, Indiana signed Jackson to a three-year, $21 million extension in the offseason, so there’s some incentive from the current regime to see him succeed in his new role.

Aaron Nesmith, SF — Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith will get more of an opportunity to show off his offensive repertoire this season. Tyrese Haliburton is out for the season and Myles Turner is now in Milwaukee, opening up the door for Nesmith and Bennedict Mathurin to flourish offensively. 

Nesmith sported 53/41/93 splits last season and while his efficiency might take a dip with Haliburton sidelined, he should remain an efficient source of three-pointers and defensive stats. 

Any bump in usage will make him a draft day steal, especially considering he’s never averaged more than 8.8 shot attempts per game. That number will likely see a nice bump this season and his per game stats should follow.

Herbert Jones, SF/PF — New Orleans Pelicans

Jones is coming off shoulder surgery and should be fully recovered from an injury that caused him to shoot a career-low 30.6% from 3-point range last season. Still, he averaged 10.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.9 steals per game when healthy and should be a strong contributor in peripheral stats once again this season. 

As the Pelicans best defender, Jones should still see plenty of minutes alongside Trey Murphy III and Jordan Poole. Given that he figures to be among the league leaders in steals once again, he should have no problem outperforming his ADP, which has him being drafted in the 11th round in 12-team leagues.

Christian Braun, SG/SF — Denver Nuggets

Christian Braun stepped into the starting lineup for Denver last season and nearly doubled his averages across the board. With Michael Porter Jr. out and Cameron Johnson in, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Braun could continue to ascend. 

Braun improved his efficiency last season, shooting 58.2% from the floor, 39.2% from 3-point range, and 82.7% from the free throw line, which were all career-highs. He also upped his 3-point volume during the playoffs, shooting 5.0 3-pointers per game during the postseason, which could be a sign of things to come as he furthers his development. 

Darius Garland, PG — Cleveland Cavaliers

Darius Garland might not be available on opening night but he still projects as one of the league’s top point guards this season when healthy. ESPN has Garland down as the 31st-ranked point guard in their latest fantasy basketball rankings, which seems criminally low for a player who should outplay his ADP (68.5) by a wide margin if and when he makes a full recovery from toe surgery.

Last season, Garland played 75 games and still filled up the stat sheet despite playing a career-low 30.7 minutes per game. He averaged 20.6 points, 6.7 assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting a career-best 47.1% from the floor and 40.1% from 30-point range. 

He’s currently going in the sixth round, which seems like a bargain for a player who had a 28.6% usage rate and could take on an even bigger role offensively in 2025-26.

Kyshawn George, SG/SF — Washington Wizards

Kyshawn George figures to be the main beneficiary of Bilal Coulibaly missing time early in the season due to a thumb injury. Coulibaly has never played more than 63 games in a season and is expected to miss nearly a month to open the 2025-26 campaign, opening up the door for George to take on a bigger role with the starting unit. 

A stat sheet stuffer as a rookie, George lacked overall efficiency but played better with the Wizards starters when he was given the opportunity. In 38 starts, he averaged 10.2 points to go along with 4.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.7 blocks with 2.0 3-pointers made per game.

If he can improve on his shooting splits (37/32/75) in Year 2, George could be one of the major surprises in Washington this season. 

Neemias Queta, PF/C — Boston Celtics

Neemias Queta is expected to split time at center with Luka Garza for Boston and is coming off of an impressive EuroBasket tournament over the summer. Quetta starred for Portugal, averaging 15.5 points and 8.0 rebounds to go along with 1.7 blocks and 1.0 steals per game in just over 24 minutes of action. If he can rival those numbers, he should have no problem delivering value on his current ADP, which has him being drafted in the 12th round in 12-team leagues.