Weather is shaping up to be a genuine factor for the Mexico vs England Round of 16 clash on July 5, with thunderstorms in the forecast at Estadio Banorte in Mexico City.
Under FIFA protocol, any lightning strike detected within 8 miles of the stadium forces an immediate stoppage, with play unable to resume until 30 minutes have passed without another strike in that radius.
Since any new lightning resets that clock, delays can stretch on for hours if storms keep rolling through, as fans in Philadelphia found out last month when a match was suspended for two hours because of a slow moving system.
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Chance Of A Mexico vs England Kicking Off On Time, Hour By Hour
Based on the latest forecast for the stadium, here is our estimate of the odds the match starts on time, and how those odds shift through the night if the opening whistle gets delayed.
Mexico vs England (8 p.m. ET, Estadio Azteca)
- Kickoff on time: 5/10
- Delayed to 9 p.m. ET: 4/10, storms are expected to linger into the evening
- Delayed to 10 p.m. ET: 4/10
- Delayed to 11 p.m. ET: 6/10, activity should be tapering off by this point
- Delayed to 12 a.m. ET: 7/10
These numbers reflect the storm risk in each forecast window rather than a guarantee. Lightning is unpredictable, and a single strike late in what looks like a clearing pattern can still force a fresh 30 minute delay.
Mexico vs England Weather Forecast
Mexico City is in the middle of its rainy season, and meteorologists expect the pattern that has affected several matches at this stadium to repeat itself. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are common this time of year, typically developing in and around the city before lingering into the night.
This is the same stadium where the Mexico vs Ecuador match was delayed for an hour during the Round of 32 due to weather, and forecasters are watching a similar setup for the England match. As of Saturday, FIFA had not moved the kickoff time, though officials had reportedly discussed shifting it earlier in the day before ultimately deciding against it.
What Happens If Mexico vs England Is Suspended
If lightning is detected within 8 miles of the stadium, players and fans are required to seek shelter immediately.
The 30 minute countdown only begins once the last lightning strike within that radius has passed, meaning the match can bounce in and out of delays for hours if the storm system is slow moving.
FIFA has no fixed cutoff point at which a match must be abandoned entirely. Each situation is assessed as it develops, so fans should keep an eye on official updates from the stadium and broadcast partners as kickoff approaches.
