MLB
MLB Home Run Leader 2025 Odds: Who Can Challenge Judge & Ohtani?
Based in Canada, Gia is a Sports Casting contributor. She graduated from the University of Windsor with a Bachelor of Science, so she knows the make-up of a winning bet. Gia uses her analytical background to tell stories using the latest data and statistics. Her work has been sourced by Entrepreneur, Inquirer, and more. Gia is also interested in health, wellness, and yoga.
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The 2025 MLB season is underway and the race for the home run leader is heating up. Aaron Judge will try to become the first player to lead the MLB in home runs in back-to-back seasons since Jose Bautista accomplished the feat in 2010 and 2011. Shohei Ohtani is among the top contenders to win the home run chase this season, along with Kyle Schwarber, Brent Rooker, and Fernando Tatis Jr.
In this article, we’ll break down the 2025 MLB home run leader odds, along with the best bets and value picks on the board.
Who Will Lead The MLB In Home Runs In 2025?
The top online sportsbooks have New York Yankees’ slugger Aaron Judge as the odds-on favorite to win the home run race in 2025.
The bar for winning the MLB’s prestigious home run leader has become increasingly high. Every MLB home run leader since 2017 has hit at least 47 home runs. Last season, Judge mashed an impressive 58 homers while Shohei Ohtani led the National League with 54 blasts. Only two other players (Anthony Santander & Juan Soto) eclipsed the 40 home run mark.
Judge has been crowned the MLB’s home run king in two of the past three seasons. Matt Olson won the home run crown in 2023 with 54 long balls
Let’s break down the odds for the 2025 MLB home run leader below.
Player
Odds
Aaron Judge
+275
Shohei Ohtani
+475
Kyle Schwarber
+1200
Brent Rooker
+1400
Fernando Tatis Jr.
+1600
Pete Alonso
+1800
Yordan Alvarez
+1800
Matt Olson
+2500
Juan Soto
+2800
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
+3300
Mike Trout
+3300
Anthony Santander
+4000
Kyle Tucker
+4000
Gunnar Henderson
+4000
Jose Ramirez
+4000
Christian Walker
+4000
Austin Riley
+4000
Bryce Harper
+5000
Teoscar Hernandez
+5000
Rafael Devers
+5000
Mark Vientos
+5000
Marcell Ozuna
+5500
Tyler O’Neill
+6600
Jake Burger
+6600
Bobby Witt Jr.
+7500
Giancarlo Stanton
+8000
Manny Machado
+10000
Cody Bellinger
+10000
MLB Home Run Leader: Expert Picks & Best Bets
Here are some of the best value picks for the 2025 MLB Home Run leader.
Brent Rooker (+1400)
Brent Rooker has emerged as a formidable power hitter for the Oakland Athletics. In 2024, he delivered his best season to date, batting .293 with 39 home runs and 112 RBIs, earning his first Silver Slugger Award and finishing tenth in the American League MVP voting. FanGraphs projects Rooker to hit 36 home runs in 2025, ranking him sixth among MLB players.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+3300)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a stellar 2024 season, slashing .323/.396/.544 with a 165 wRC+, marking a significant resurgence in his offensive production. Known for his exceptional power, Guerrero led the MLB with 48 home runs in 2021 and continues to be a consistent threat at the plate. Last year, he posted a hard-hit rate of 41.2%, the second-highest mark of his career. With free agency looming next year, Guerrero’s motivation to showcase his power will be at an all-time high after he bet on himself and refused to sign an extension in Toronto.
Jake Burger (+6600)
Jake Burger had an impressive 2024 campaign but nearly all of his production came in the second half of the season. Burger appeared to figure things out after the All-Star Break. He hit 22 of his 29 home runs from July through September and could be a legitimate threat to top 40 home runs for the first time in his career. The Rangers’ slugger also displayed some excellent power metrics, including a 12.3% barrel rate and a maximum exit velocity of 115.5 mph.
