Aaron Judge winning the American League MVP award in 2025 appeared to be a foregone conclusion. But due to some recent struggles and now his absence due to injury, there is a new leader in the clubhouse. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is now the odds-on leader to be the one who takes home the hardware.
Cal Raleigh Is The New AL MVP Favorite After Judge’s Injury
It’s been an electrifying summer in MLB, and no player has captured attention quite like Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. Formerly seen as a long‑shot in the AL MVP race, Raleigh has rocketed to the top of the odds board, now listed around –125 to –145 at major sportsbooks, ahead of the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, who dropped to roughly +100 in the market after being placed on the injured list with a right elbow flexor strain.
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is the favorite (-135) to win AL MVP for the first time this season at @BetMGM over Aaron Judge (+105).
Last week, Judge was -650 and Raleigh +300.
Judge was a -10000 favorite earlier in the season
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) July 28, 2025
Raleigh has earned it. As of Monday, he leads Major League Baseball in home runs, with 41 long balls and is now the leader in the AL when it comes to total RBIs. His slash line of .257/.368/.618 and elite defensive work behind the plate has made him a standout even among sluggers. And if people and fans didn’t know who he was before, Raleigh made an even bigger splash when he took home the Home Run Derby crown during the All-Star break.
Alarm bells for Judge’s MVP status rang loud when the Yankees slugger was sidelined for at least ten days and his odds collapsed from overwhelming favoritism. That opening enabled Raleigh to pull ahead, with his implied probability of winning at 58% compared to roughly 50% for Judge in some books.
Cal Raleigh is on pace to break Aaron Judge’s AL home run record 👀 pic.twitter.com/RjQgaaIRqH
— MLB (@MLB) July 28, 2025
Will Catcher’s Fatigue Catch Up With Raleigh In August?
Can Raleigh keep up the pace over the final two months of the season, though? Being an everyday catcher can take a toll on a player’s body, which is part of the reason why his success has been something of a surprise this season. He’s been dominant up until this point, but it will be important for potential bettors to monitor his conditioning as the regular season enters the final stretch.
There are only two players in Seattle Mariners history who have earned season MVP honors. Ken Griffy Jr. took home the hardware in 1997 to become the first winner ever for the franchise, and Ichiro Suzuki, who was recently inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame, won it four years later in 2001.
