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NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 Odds, Predictions, Kyle Larson’s Quest & Best Bets At Martinsville Speedway

Jeff Hawkins Written by Sports EditorJeff Hawkins
Updated –
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The NASCAR Cup Series’ marketing department may be getting nervous. 

Kyle Larson, one of motorsports’ major personalities, opens Sunday’s Round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway seven points below the elimination line. 

For marketing reasons, the stock-car racing industry may privately hope Larson eventually plays a major role during the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway on Nov. 10. With Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick already qualified, Larson’s presence would certainly boost television ratings. NASCAR does not need any more sponsorship setbacks.

Larson must avoid the trouble he faced last Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The 2021 circuit champion endured a flat right-rear tire that forced his No. 5 Chevrolet into a wall. Rallying from the Stage 1 mishap, Larson was in position to take the lead on Lap 255, but ended up spinning out during a three-wide situation with Ryan Blaney and Austin Dillon.

“You’re trying to make split-second decisions … I was trying to shoot the gap,” Larson told NASCAR.com. “It just didn’t work out.”

Larson finished P13.

“Great job rebounding,” Larson said.

Larson (+400) has competed in two previous final four races and enters Sunday as the sports-betting favorite to win his way back into the final four, according to Caesars Sportsbook.

Below, we’ll preview the top storylines heading into Sunday’s Xfinity 500, go over the odds, and give our best bets for the 35th race – and Round of 8 finale – on the 2024 NASCAR schedule.

Xfinity 500 Storylines

  • After a record 33 lead changes and a dramatic finish last Sunday at Homestead-Miami, should the national series’ Championship 4 races return to the Sunshine State?
  • Going from third place to first on the last lap after securing a stage win from the pole position, Reddick enjoyed a sunny Florida afternoon. All eight of Reddick’s career wins have come at different tracks. The Championship 4 qualifier has yet to visit Victory Lane at Phoenix in nine chances.
  • Ryan Blaney discovered creative ways to lose races on the final rotation this season. He fell short by inches at Atlanta, ran out of gas at Gateway and couldn’t block Riddick from passing on the final turn at Homestead-Miami. Will the defending Cup champion’s on-track luck change at Martinsville?

Xfinity 500 Driver Odds  

Here is an early look at the drivers’ odds for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway, according to Caesars Sportsbook:

Driver NASCAR Cup Series’ Xfinity 500 Odds
Kyle Larson +400
Denny Hamlin +425
Ryan Blaney +500
William Byron +750
Chase Elliott +800
Christopher Bell +1000
Martin Truex Jr. +1400
Chase Briscoe +1600
Joey Logano +1600
Bubba Wallace  +2200
 Brad Keselowski +2500
Tyler Reddick +2500
 Ty Gibbs +2500
Alex Bowman +3000
Kyle Busch  +3000
Ross Chastain +3500
 Josh Berry +4000
 Chris Buescher +4500
Ryan Preece +7500
Daniel Suarez +10000
  Carson Hocevar +10000
Noah Gragson +10000
    Todd Gilliland +10000
    Noah Gragson +15000
Austin Dillon +20000
Austin Cindric +25000
Shane van Gisbergen +25000
Michael McDowell +30000
  Erik Jones +35000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +50000
Corey LaJoie +75000
Zane Smith +75000
Justin Haley +75000
Harrison Burton +100000
John Hunter Nemechek +100000
Daniel Hemric  +150000
Josh Bilicki +250000
Kaz Grala +250000

*-Odds current at time of publication

Xfinity 500 Predictions and Picks  

Here are our best NASCAR Cup Series bets for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway:

Denny Hamlin (+425) 

With four top-fives in his past seven outings at Martinsville, Hamlin has spent a lot of time out front, compiling 840 laps led. Hamlin nearly won off the final restart last Sunday at Homestead-Miami, but was passed on the last lap. Eighteen points below the cutoff line, Hamlin will be driving desperately at a track he likes.

William Bryon (+750)  

Entering Sunday seven points above the elimination line with two final four spots available. With two wins and four top-fives in his past seven starts at Martinsville, Byron, who ran a clean, if not conservative race at Homestead-Miami, should be tough to bet against in the Round of 8 finale.

Christopher Bell (+1000) 

Over the past 45 days, Bell has dominated the circuit, compiling an average finish of 5.7 over his past seven outings. During that span, Bell earned four top-fives and six top-10s. He enters Sunday 29 points above the cutoff line.

Jeff Hawkins Written by Sports EditorJeff Hawkins
Jeff Hawkins is an award-winning sportswriter with more than four decades in the industry, in both print and digital media. He joined the Sportscasting team in 2021 following a decade of freelancing. He spent his early career as a reporter for various newspapers in Illinois, New York, Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan, with a particular emphasis as a beat reporter for the Chicago Blackhawks. Jeff earned his bachelor's degree in journalism from Oakland University. Over the course of his career he earned several sports writing awards, including two national awards from the Associated Press Sports Editors for column writing and news reporting. One of the five prized columns included a commentary on NASCAR's increasing corporate influences, particularly in northern racetracks — commentary which you might find Jeff building on as part of the Motorsports writing team at Sportscasting now.  
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