NASCAR

NASCAR Cup Series YellaWood 500 Odds, Predictions & Best Bets At Talladega Superspeedway 

By
Jeff Hawkins
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Jeff Hawkins Sports Editor

Jeff Hawkins is an award-winning sportswriter with more than four decades in the industry, in both print and digital media. He joined the Sportscasting team in 2021 following a decade of freelancing. He spent his early career as a reporter for various newspapers in Illinois, New York, Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan, with a particular emphasis as a beat reporter for the Chicago Blackhawks. Jeff earned his bachelor's degree in journalism from Oakland University. Over the course of his career he earned several sports writing awards, including two national awards from the Associated Press Sports Editors for column writing and news reporting. One of the five prized columns included a commentary on NASCAR's increasing corporate influences, particularly in northern racetracks — commentary which you might find Jeff building on as part of the Motorsports writing team at Sportscasting now.  

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Published01 Oct 2024

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ross chastain racing during kansas playoff race (1)

Lost in the hoopla of Ryan Blaney’s 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship last fall, Ross Chastain claimed the Championship 4 race at Phoenix Raceway.  

Blaney received most of the headlines, but Chastain, at least, celebrated his fourth career win. Since then, however, the No. 1 Chevrolet fell back from the contenders’ pace, failing to place inside the top 12 for this season’s opening five events. His early skid included a P36 at Bristol Motor Speedway on Mach 17. 

With three crashes this season, Chastain’s team meandered through the regular season and finishing outside the Round of 16. Following Chastain’s win last Sunday at Kansas Speedway, the team’s confidence may be returning in the postseason. 

“We haven’t gone anywhere,” Chastain told NBC Sports. “We keep showing up. It’s not easy when you’re failing or struggling at something, and you just can’t get to where you want to get to.” 

With one win and two top-10 finishes in his past seven races at Talladega Superspeedway, will Chastain continue to play spoiler?

Below, we’ll preview the top storylines heading into Sunday’s YellaWood 500, go over the odds, and give our best bets for the 31st race on the 2024 NASCAR schedule and middle Round of 12 event.

YellaWood 500 Storylines

  • Christopher Bell earned a come-from-behind P7 after starting from the pole for the third straight Kansas Cup event. Tied with Ryan Blaney for second in playoff points, 28 points above the Round of 8 cutoff, Bell spoke of his missed opportunities last Sunday. wish I had a couple corners back,” he said, as reported by NBC Sports.
  • Denny Hamlin earned a P8 at Kansas, but he wasn’t too pleased with the No. 11 Toyota team’s effort. “It was just a crappy day on pit road,” he said. “We didn’t get the finish that we deserved.” With two Round of 12 races remaining, Hamlin ranks No. 5, 11 points above the elimination line. 
  • At the top of the playoff bubble, Tyler Reddick sits four points behind two ex-series champions, Joey Logano and Chase Elliott. Talk about a race within a race.

YellaWood 500 Driver Odds  

Here is an early look at the drivers’ odds for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, according to BetOnline Sportsbook:

Driver NASCAR Cup Series’ YellaWood 500 Odds
Ryan Blaney +950
Brad Keselowski +950
Joey Logano +950
Kyle Busch  +1000
Chase Elliott +1200
Denny Hamlin  +1400
William Byron +1400
Bubba Wallace +1600
Kyle Larson +1800
Tyler Reddick  +2000
 Martin Truex Jr. +2000
Chris Buescher +2000
Ross Chastain +2200
Austin Cindric +2200
Michael McDowell +2200
Christopher Bell +2800
Ty Gibbs +2800
Alex Bowman +2800
Daniel Suarez +2800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +3300
  Chase Briscoe   +4000
Harrison Burton +4000
    Austin Dillon +4000
    AJ Allmendinger       +4000
Josh Berry +5000
Erik Jones +5000
Noah Gragson +5000
Todd Gilliland +5000
  Justin Haley +5000
Ryan Preece +5000
Corey LaJoie +6600
Carson Hocevar +8000
John Hunter Nemechek +8000
Shane van Gisbergen +8000
Daniel Hemric +8000
Anthony Alfredo +8000
Zane Smith +10000
JJ Yeley +10000
BJ McLeod +10000

*-Odds current at time of publication

YellaWood 500 Predictions and Picks  

Here are our best NASCAR Cup Series bets for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway:

Ryan Blaney (+950) 

One of the race favorites, Blaney’s average finish is 8.6 over his last seven outings at Talladega, including one win and three top-fives.

Brad Keselowski (+950) 

Another favorite, Keselowski may be out of the postseason chase, but after claiming one win and four top-fives at Talladega since the start of 2021, the No. 6 Ford pilot intends to play spoiler, too.

Kyle Busch (+1000) 

Who believes Busch will earn at least one trip to Victory Lane for a 20th consecutive season? He’s been close several times the past month and won at Talladega in double overtime in April 2023.