The New York Times Athletic has weighed in on all four Day 12 fixtures at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, covering Group I and Group J action on Monday, June 22.
From Lionel Messi’s Argentina taking on Austria at AT&T Stadium to the 11 p.m. ET late-night clash between Jordan and Algeria, today’s slate has four high-stakes matches across two competitive groups.
Here are the expert picks, best bets and BetOnline odds for every game.
New York Times World Cup Predictions Day 12 – Best Bets Summary
- Argentina to Win -190
- France to Win -1100
- Norway to Win +130
- Algeria to Win -175
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New York Times Argentina vs Austria Prediction – Argentina Win -190
Argentina head into this Group J fixture full of confidence after Lionel Messi’s hat-trick sealed a 3-0 opening win over Algeria. AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas provides the stage as the reigning world champions look to take a firm grip on the group.
Austria are no pushover. Ralf Rangnick’s side beat Jordan 3-1 on Matchday 1 and carry genuine attacking intent into this fixture. But the gap in quality between the two squads is significant.
Messi is the obvious focal point, but Argentina’s depth makes them dangerous from all angles. Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez provide relentless movement and finishing quality, and Argentina’s backline conceded no goals in the opener.
Austria’s expected goals output of 0.39 against Jordan suggests their attacking numbers flatter them. Against a defence of Argentina’s calibre, finding the net becomes a different challenge entirely.
The New York Times Athletic backs Argentina to win at -190 on BetOnline, with the reigning champions expected to control this match and back up their Matchday 1 statement performance.
| Market | Selection | Odds (BetOnline) |
|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Argentina Win | -190 |
| Match Result | Draw | +320 |
| Match Result | Austria Win | +600 |
New York Times France vs Iraq Prediction – France Win -1100
France are the heaviest favourites on the Day 12 slate. Kylian Mbappé scored a brace and Bradley Barcola added a third as Les Bleus dismantled Senegal 3-1 in their Group I opener. Iraq, meanwhile, lost 4-1 to Norway and face a monumental task at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.
The market has priced this accordingly. France are -1100 on the moneyline at BetOnline, making a straight win bet unattractive for most bettors seeking value. The sharper angle likely sits in the goals markets, where France’s firepower and Iraq’s limited defensive quality point toward a high-scoring afternoon.
Mbappé, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé operate with a fluidity that few Group Stage opponents can contain. Iraq had -0.27 expected goals against Norway, ranking among the worst defensive performances of the tournament’s opening round.
The New York Times Athletic sides with France to win comfortably, though bettors seeking better returns should explore the Over market or Mbappé anytime scorer at -175.
| Market | Selection | Odds (BetOnline) |
|---|---|---|
| Match Result | France Win | -1100 |
| Match Result | Draw | +1100 |
| Match Result | Iraq Win | +4000 |
New York Times Norway vs Senegal Prediction – Norway Win +130
This is the most evenly matched fixture on the Day 12 card and the one generating the most debate among sharp bettors. Norway and Senegal both sit on three points after Matchday 1, setting up a Group I clash with genuine implications for top spot.
Erling Haaland announced his World Cup arrival with a brace against Iraq, and the Manchester City striker remains the most dangerous individual in this tournament. Norway’s defensive structure also impressed in the opener, limiting Iraq’s threat effectively under head coach Ståle Solbakken.
Senegal carry authentic attacking quality. Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson and Ismaïla Sarr form a forward line capable of hurting any defence. But Senegal’s expected goals output of -0.27 against France was among the lowest recorded in the opening round, raising questions about how they generate chances against organised sides.
At +130 on BetOnline, Norway’s moneyline represents genuine value. Backing the Scandinavians outright avoids the noise in the Over/Under market, where expert opinion remains genuinely split, and takes advantage of a price that still offers better than evens on a team many analysts consider Group I favourites.
| Market | Selection | Odds (BetOnline) |
|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Norway Win | +130 |
| Match Result | Draw | +260 |
| Match Result | Senegal Win | +210 |
New York Times Jordan vs Algeria Prediction – Algeria Win -175
The final fixture of Day 12 kicks off at 11 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. Algeria face Jordan in a Group J match where the gap between the sides is clear and the odds reflect it.
Algeria lost 3-0 to Argentina in their opener but covered the expected goals differential impressively, with a -0.45 xG differential that shows they made Argentina work harder than the scoreline suggests. Going from the defending world champions to Jordan represents a stark drop in quality of opposition.
Jordan lost 3-1 to Austria on Matchday 1 and struggled to create meaningful chances at either end. Their expected goals output gave little reason for optimism against a more physically and technically advanced Algeria squad.
Algeria carry a deep European-based roster with quality throughout the lineup. The New York Times Athletic backs them to win at -175 on BetOnline and potentially secure their passage into the knockout round picture with a convincing result.
| Market | Selection | Odds (BetOnline) |
|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Algeria Win | -175 |
| Match Result | Draw | +333 |
| Match Result | Jordan Win | +500 |