The NFL MVP race did not move in a straight line this season. It swung sharply, reversed course multiple times, and only settled late. When the full year is lined up using weekly odds movement, a clear story emerges. Early confidence in Josh Allen gave way to a long Matthew Stafford run. Drake Maye surged late and briefly took control. One final market correction then pushed Stafford back in front, and that’s currently where we stand.
This is how the 2026 NFL MVP race unfolded, using odds movement alongside what actually happened on the field.
NFL MVP Race 2026: Week-By-Week Odds Movement
*Press play in bottom left to watch how the 2025-26 MVP race unfolded.
Key Points in 2026 MVP Race
| Point In Season | Market Leader | Odds | Implied Chance | How it Happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preseason | Lamar Jackson | +500 | 17% | Jackson was on what was considered a strong Ravens squad considered among the favorites for the Super Bowl |
| Before Week 5 | Josh Allen | -105 | 51% | Allen was treated as the clear frontrunner after a fast start. |
| Before Week 13 | Matthew Stafford | -235 | 70% | The market believed Stafford was separating from the field with a slew of strong performances. |
| Before Week 14 | Drake Maye | -120 | 55% | Maye jumped to the front after a win streak and a prime-time moment after Rams loss created doubt. |
| Before Week 15 | Matthew Stafford | -195 | 66% | Stafford reclaimed control with a strong rebound performance while Maye’s odds stalled. |
| Before Week 18 | Drake Maye | -330 | 77% | Maye briefly surged again as Stafford’s late loss to the Falcons reopened the race. |
| Final / Postseason Close | Matthew Stafford | -190 | 66% | The market ultimately settled back on Stafford after reassessing the full body of work and a win over the Cardinals. |
Matthew Stafford Ends Season As MVP Favorite
Matthew Stafford opened in long-shot range for this season’s MVP award at around +3500, and stayed there early. As the Rams started winning consistently, the odds reacted almost weekly.
He shortened from +2500 to +1700, then to +1500, and eventually into the low hundreds. Before Week 13, Stafford reached -235, roughly a 70 percent implied chance. That kind of number usually signals a race close to being locked.
What followed showed how reactive the market became. A loss later in the season cracked Stafford’s grip and pushed Drake Maye to the front, and this happened twice. But each time the market tried to move away from Stafford completely, it corrected back once his production and team results stabilized.
That’s why Stafford reappears as the favorite multiple times, including the current market position at -190.
Drake Maye Behind Stafford in 2026 MVP Odds
Early in the season, Drake Maye sat at +10000. He was barely part of the discussion.
The rise was fast. His odds collapsed to +3500, then +1500, then +1000 as his performances stacked up. By midseason, he was tracking with the top candidates on a weekly basis.
Before Week 14, Maye reached -120 and became the market leader. Later, heading into Week 18, his implied probability peaked again above 75 percent. Importantly, those swings were not driven by Maye collapsing afterward.
Instead, they reflect how sensitive the market became to Stafford’s results. When Stafford stumbled, the race reopened. When Stafford responded, the market snapped back.
Josh Allen Surged Early But Lost Control Of The MVP Conversation
Josh Allen opened the season near the top of the board and pulled away early. His performances were strong enough that before Week 5, he sat at -105 to win the MVP award, a price that reflected near total market confidence.
That grip did not last. His odds drifted steadily to +140, then +275, then +400 as other quarterbacks surged and the Bills dropped games. A head-to-head loss to Drake Maye marked the turning point.
By the middle of the season, Allen was still listed, but no longer driving the market. His odds later ballooned to 50/1 as the race narrowed elsewhere.
Why Patrick Mahomes Never Took Over The MVP Race
Patrick Mahomes stayed relevant all season without ever fully owning the race. His odds shortened at times, including a move to +140 before Week 9, but he never pushed into runaway territory.
Each time momentum built, either Kansas City dropped a close game or another quarterback delivered a more eye-catching stretch.
How Injuries Shaped The Market
Lamar Jackson opened near the top of the board but drifted sharply after his hamstring injury in Week 4. Before Week 5, his odds had already slid to +2000, and he never re-entered serious contention.
Joe Burrow’s injury removed him even earlier. Once surgery was confirmed, he was immediately priced out of the race.
Mahomes was basically already out of the race before he went down with his season-ending ACL tear.
Where The Race Stands Now
The above table shows why this race has felt unstable. The market has repeatedly tried to declare a leader, only to pull back after the next result.
Right now, Stafford sits back in front at around a 67% implied chance. Maye remains close enough to force hesitation. It’s a two-horse race at this point.
This has not been about one quarterback collapsing. It has been about how aggressively market shifts, and then corrects, as the season continues.
