The prediction platform Polymarket has listed the probabilities of the 1st pick in the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft being traded, and it appears that the Raiders are heavily favored to hold on to their valuable asset.
Will The Raiders Trade The 1st Pick In 2026 NFL Draft?
According to real-time pricing on Polymarket’s prediction platform, the probability that the No. 1 pick will be traded before draft night sits at just 16%. That figure is down from the ~50% that it sat at before the conclusion of the regular season, when it was decided that Las Vegas would hold the rights tot the top selection.
The Raiders locked in their position when other 3-14 teams, including the New York Giants, lost tiebreakers and ultimately the draft order, solidifying the Raiders’ control of the top spot for the first time since 2007.
Before the NFL season concluded, a wide range of outcomes were priced into the market. This is largely because several teams, including the Giants and Titans, had plausible claims to the No. 1 pick based on tiebreakers and late-season results. In that environment, speculators saw a roughly even chance that trading the pick could make sense for franchise rebuilding plans. But once Las Vegas emerged with clear ownership of the top selection, belief in a trade began to recede.
Raiders fans watching Fernando Mendoza tonight: pic.twitter.com/vhQFXYHuoZ
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) January 10, 2026
Would that be the right choice, though? The Raiders have holes to fill all over their roster, and are undergoing yet another overhaul as they search for a new head coach. Trading the pick could result in a boat load of draft capital in return, which would help Las Vegas fill more of their needs than if they stayed put and selected the best player available.
Instead, markets are pricing in a scenario in which the Raiders keep the pick and use it to select a top quarterback prospect, likely the heavily favored Indiana Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza.
Teams with the most theoretical interest in trading up, like the New York Jets, are viewed as long shots to move the needle. The relatively low 16% trade probability underscores how unlikely most bettors think a blockbuster draft day deal will happen.
