Weather is shaping up to be a genuine factor for the Norway vs England Quarterfinal on July 11, with thunderstorms in the forecast at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.
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Under FIFA protocol, any lightning strike detected within 8 miles of the stadium forces an immediate stoppage, with play unable to resume until 30 minutes have passed without another strike in that radius.
Since any new lightning resets that clock, delays can stretch on for hours if storms keep rolling through, as fans saw when England’s Round of 16 win over Mexico was pushed back more than an hour due to thunderstorms in Mexico City.
Based on the latest forecast for the stadium, here is our estimate of the odds the match starts on time, and how those odds shift through the evening if the opening whistle gets delayed.
Chance of Storm Delay In Norway vs England
- Starts on time at 5 p.m. ET: 5/10, storms are expected to build around midday and remain a factor into the evening.
- Delayed to 6 p.m. ET: 4/10, the sea breeze pattern typical of South Florida this time of year should still be moving through the area.
- Delayed to 7 p.m. ET or later: 2/10, this would require the storm cell or its residual lightning risk to linger well beyond the typical afternoon window.
These numbers reflect the storm risk in each forecast window rather than a guarantee. Lightning is unpredictable, and a single strike late in what looks like a clearing pattern can still force a fresh 30 minute delay.
Miami is in the middle of its summer storm season, and meteorologists expect the same sea breeze pattern that has affected several matches this tournament to repeat itself.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are common this time of year, typically developing along the coast before moving inland later in the day.
This is the same weather system that delayed England’s pre-tournament friendly against Costa Rica in Orlando by an hour, and forecasters are watching a similar setup for tonight’s quarterfinal.
Beyond the storm risk, the US National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for the Miami area, with temperatures expected to feel as high as 109°F once humidity is factored in.
As of Saturday afternoon, FIFA had not moved the kickoff time from its scheduled 5 p.m. ET slot.
