The Toronto Raptors are looking to be that team which emerges from the depths this season.
After winning 25 games in 2023-24 and 30 games last year, Toronto believes it has the core to be in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff hunt.
Scottie Barnes is entering his fifth season. Jakob Poeltl is coming off a career-best year. Immanuel Quickley is eager to prove his worth as a star point guard in the league. Brandon Ingram has been added to the mix as a release valve when the offense gets stuck in mud.
R.J. Barrett is a volume scorer but not necessarily an efficient one. His defense also has big question marks, which is why he and the two years, $57 million remaining on his contact are involved in trade rumors.
Head coach Darko Rajakovic has had two seasons to get his feet wet and enters this season with real expectations. He’s shown his developmental chops but the win-loss results will mean more going forward. The performance of general manager Bobby Webster will be monitored closely as well after the departure of Masai Ujiri.
Most insiders and Las Vegas believe this to be a sub-.500 team, but is there more than meets the eye in Toronto?
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Offensive Overview
Rajakovic has implemented a system predicated on ball and player movement. It’s made for a more aesthetically viable offense post-Nick Nurse but there hasn’t been much in the way of results. The Raptors haven’t finished higher than 24th in offensive rating during his two seasons.
Last season, injuries were a major factor. Quickley played just 33 games, Barrett played 58 and Poeltl logged 57. Even second-year wing Gradey Dick saw just 54 games.
There is reason to think the offense could be a bit clunky fitting Ingram into a starting lineup short on floor-spacing. Quickley is the only volume 3-point threat. Poeltl touts solid roll gravity and has proven very effective operating in actions with Quickley and Barrett. They will hope for the same with Ingram.
Barnes’ offensive evolution will play a key factor. His touch around the basket looked pretty deft in the first half of 2024-25 but seemed to tail off after he sustained a hand injury. The 3-point shooting has simply not been there in his career but Toronto will be hoping he can at least be a serviceable catch-and-shoot option.
Dick should have an easier diet of shots this year. Because of early season injuries to Barnes and Quickley, Dick took on an overtaxed offensive load. Now, he’ll be coming off the bench and have much less of a shot creation burden.
The personnel and system are in place for the Raptors to at least get closer to a league-average offense.
Defensive Overview
This is where things get interesting. If you wanted to point toward a leading indicator the Raptors are ready to surprise, it would be theIR defensive rating.
Toronto finished 27th in 2023-24 and bumped that up to 14th last season. Zooming in further, it was 26th in defensive rating prior to the 2024-25 All-Star Break before closing the season third in 27 games following the February layoff.
Rajakovic wants this team to pride itself on ball pressure and relentless intensity. After the All-Star Break, the Raptors were third in opposing turnover rate and improved significantly protecting the defensive glass.
Barnes performed at an All-Defensive Team-caliber level last year and Poeltl is a terrific rim protector. Those two manning the backline is a nightmare for opponents. Is this really a top-five defense, though?
Worth keeping in mind is 18 of the 27 games the Raptors played after the break came against the bottom-10 teams in net rating. A good chunk of their strong defensive rating stems from those games. They were around league average in the other nine games.
Considering how much playing time their young players saw, that’s still a notable improvement. They may not be ready to be considered a defensive juggernaut but it’s safe to say good defense has become a big part of this team’s identity.
Toronto Raptors’ Overall Outlook
Logic suggests a team which won 30 games last season — despite keeping one eye on the lottery (at times, even two) — had a rash of injuries and is now adding an All-Star-caliber player in Ingram is poised to be at least .500 this year.
In the East, that’s at least a Play-In Tournament team. If the Raptors’ core can stay healthy enough, they’re likely a playoff team. Health will be particularly key to monitor for Ingram. He’s played 18, 64, 45 and 55 games each of the last four seasons. Toronto needs at least 60 games out of him, ideally closer to 70.
We haven’t yet discussed the depth, which is such a crucial piece in today’s league. Toronto’s All-Star-caliber players, Barnes and Ingram, are flanked by two quality starters and a league-average shooting guard. That allows for a comfortable level of staggering in Rajakovic’s rotations.
After that, he’s got different horses for different courses. Dick provides the best scoring threat off the bench while Ja’Kobe Walter and Ochai Agbaji offer better two-way play. Jamal Shead is a tenacious, defensive-minded backup point guard. Rookie forward Collin Murray-Boyles should be a useful defender out the gate. The center spot certainly looks weakest, with Sandro Mamukelashvili occupying the theoretical backup role.
If the defense is in fact real and the offense hits that league-average mark, the Raptors could compete for as high as the fifth seed out East.
