It will be a battle of titans in the US Open men’s semifinal when Carlos Alcaraz squares off against Novak Djokovic.
This is a matchup many hoped for when the tournament draw was released and the dream is now a reality. They have played each other eight times and the majority of their battles have been classics. This encounter is one of the last times we’ll see it.
Djokovic, now an elder statesman of the game, will look to create the upset as most expect Alcaraz to face off against Jannik Sinner in the final on Sunday.
“I’m gonna try to mess up the plans of most of the people,” Djokovic said. “They are playing, definitely, the best tennis of any player here. They’ve been dominant force[s] since the beginning of the tournament.
“I’m definitely not going with a white flag on the court.”
Alcaraz is the betting favorite for this match by a decent margin. Can the 24-time Grand Slam champion prevent the third Major ‘Sincaraz’ showdown of the year?
Here are five keys that will determine that match.
Alcaraz In Better Form
Off the top, we have to recognize that Alcaraz has been on a tear since losing the Wimbledon final. He skipped the Toronto Masters and then went on to win the Cincinnati title. So far this US Open, he’s won five matches without dropping a single set.
He’s 59-6 so far in 2025 with six titles including the French Open.
Djokovic, meanwhile, is 31-9 this year with one title — his 100th tour title. He’s played 25 fewer matches largely due to a concerted effort to reducing his schedule to better manage his 38 year old body.
He was forced to retire from the Australian Open semifinals with a torn left hamstring and suffered an adductor injury at Wimbledon.
At the US Open, Djokovic labored through his first two matches, looking well short of match fitness. The most important thing for him at that point in time was the results and he got them.
Djokovic showed some of his best tennis in the three rounds since but still appears a notch below what Alcaraz has shown thus far. Of course, the Serbian has shown time and time again that he rises to the occasion.
There is no escape from Alcaraz. pic.twitter.com/z78dIudJyB
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 2, 2025
Djokovic May Still Hold Hard Court Edge
Alcaraz and Djokovic have played each other three times on a hard court and the elder statesman of the game emerged victorious all three times.
They played each other in Cincinnati, the ATP Finals and the Australian Open, the year-end tournament the only one that looked rather lopsided with a 6-3, 6-2 scoreline.
Both Cincinnati and the ATP Finals meetings were in 2023. The Aussie Open quarterfinal meeting earlier this year was the most recent. In that one, Djokovic lost the first set but then summoned all his skill and gamesmanship to win the next three sets.
The 38 year old was limping badly and even giving up on points early in the second set. Sensing the need to shorten points, he looked to bludgeon the ball and come to net more. It worked. Then he started running, too. Alcaraz was unimpressed and even briefly seemed to mock Djokovic’s injury at the end of the third set.
Djokovic won more of the long rallies, rankled Alcaraz’s feathers and delivered a body blow.
Alcaraz Has Better Fitness For Long Points
Looking at the injuries Djokovic has sustained since, it appears as though Alcaraz should have the edge when it comes to physicality.
Even in the match against Taylor Fritz, it was Djokovic looking winded and weary after extended rallies. Djokovic won that match on skill but against Alcaraz the skill disparity is negligible.
“The next couple days is really key for me to get my body in shape and ready to battle five sets if it’s needed,” Djokovic said after defeating Taylor Fritz. “I just would really love that, would love to be fit enough to play potentially five sets with Carlos…
“There’s gonna be a lot of running involved, that’s for sure. There’s not gonna be short points.”
At 22, Alcaraz is a spring chicken while Djokovic is far from it. That’s the reality of the Serb being unable to claim any of the last seven Major titles while the Spaniard has won three.
Djokovic Holds Advantage Between Ears
While Alcaraz should be in better physical shape for this match, Djokovic should have the mental edge. He has won four of the last five meetings between the two, the only loss coming in the 2024 Wimbledon final. Djokovic played that tournament just a few weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a meniscus tear.
Adding to that is the tension and stakes of the matches they’ve played. Alcaraz was in tears after losing one of the greatest Masters 1000 finals ever in Cincinnati in 2023. He once again cut a forlorn figure when losing the Olympic gold medal game in Paris last year.
Throw in the frustration he showed during their Australian Open encounter this year and it feels very much as though Alcaraz will be carrying some scar tissue into this one.
“I know he’s hungry, I know he’s in business for more so let’s see,” Alcaraz said of Djokovic after his quarterfinal win. “I know I played a lot of times against him, I really want [to] revenge that.”
Day Session Will Suit Alcaraz More
There was quite a bit of suspense as the tennis world awaited the time slot for this blockbuster clash. As fitting as this matchup would be for prime time at Arthur Ashe, the tournament organizers have allotted the 3:00 p.m. EST day session for this semifinal.
Jannik Sinner will play Felix Auger-Aliassime in the night session in the other semifinal.
The prevailing theory entering this match is that the ball flies quicker through the air during the day and that will be an advantage for Alcaraz. He likes to play at a faster pace and his movement is currently superior to Djokovic’s.
With more heat during the day, that will also be a bigger test of Djokovic’s endurance. Alcaraz’s advantage extends further now. The long rallies have had a big say in the results of their matches and Friday should be no different.
Speaking with Spanish media, Alcaraz’s coach Juan Carlos Ferrero indicated as much.
“In Australia, they played at night, and that favored Novak a bit,” Ferrero said. “If we played here during the day, we believe the conditions would be much better for us.”
The signs point to another Sinner-Alcaraz final. Djokovic, though, has proven in the past just how dangerous he can be when designated third place.
