USA opened as +125 favorites to win World Cup 2026 Group DÂ and are now as short as -225 to advance as the top team after a convincing first game win against Paraguay. A win against Australia on Friday will no doubt shorten those odds even further.
The USMNT never leave the West Coast across three group-stage matches, playing in front of home crowds in Los Angeles and Seattle without a single cross-country flight.
The group also features Türkiye, Paraguay and Australia.
The second-place race between Türkiye and the rest is where the real betting tension lives, and the expanded 48-team format keeps both Paraguay and Australia in the advancement conversation longer than the raw odds suggest.
2026 World Cup Group D Odds – As Of June 19
- USA -225
- Australia +400
- Turkey +700
- Paraguay +2500
Odds courtesy of Lucky Rebel.
USA at -225: The Home Platform Is Helping, and the Squad Is Flying
After beating Paraguay 4-1 in the opening Group D match, the USMNT are heavy favorites to advance as group winners.
It was a convincing performance in Los Angeles on June 12 with Folarin Balogun showing his worth with an impressive brace.
They now play Australia in Seattle before a final-round game against Turkey back in LA.
If USA can get at least one point against Australia, the -225 is likely to cut even more.
Turkey: Disappointing Start With Defeat To Australia
Turkey were the second favorites to win Group D before a ball was kicked, but those odds drifted after their poor performance against Australia.
The market expected both USA and Turkey to advance together. This looks unlikely now.
Things went terribly wrong for Turkey in Vancouver and they suffered an embarrassing 2-0 loss to Australia.
They now face Paraguay with a desperate need for three points.
Paraguay: Work To Do After First Game Loss
Paraguay couldn’t have had a worse start in the 2026 World Cup with a humbling 4-1 defeat to USA in Los Angeles.
They didn’t click, they looked lethargic and it was simply a terrible performance.
Plenty fancied Paraguay maybe to perform well in this year’s competition, but it looks unlikely that they will be progressing now.
They face a Turkey side also in need of a win next.
Australia: Strong Start, Looking Good For Knockout Dream
Australia were rank outsiders to win Group D when the odds were released pre-tournament, but they provided a huge shock in Game 1.
They beat Turkey 2-0 in a comfortable performance.
Next up is a tough game against the host nation, but after that Turkey performance, don’t rule out another big result.
Group D Match Schedule/Results
- June 12: USA 4-1 Paraguay – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood (Los Angeles), CA
- June 13: Australia 2-0 Turkey – BC Place, Vancouver, BC
- June 19: USA vs. Australia – Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
- June 19: Türkiye vs. Paraguay – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
- June 25: Türkiye vs. USA – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood (Los Angeles), CA
- June 25: Paraguay vs. Australia – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
The USA never leave the West Coast. That is a structural edge over every opponent in this group – no cross-country travel, no altitude scramble, no unfamiliar surfaces.
Türkiye and Australia carry the heaviest travel burden, moving between Vancouver, Santa Clara, and Los Angeles across three matchdays.
The simultaneous June 25 final-matchday kickoffs – Türkiye vs. USA and Paraguay vs. Australia at the same time – guarantee maximum drama and prevent tactical scoreline management in the closing minutes.
Group D Picks and Predictions
- Group Winner: USA at +125 (Lucky Rebel)
- Second Place: Türkiye at +175 (Lucky Rebel)
- Value Longshot: Australia advancement odds (monitor at Lucky Rebel)
USA at +125 is the cleanest bet on the board in Group D. Home venues in Los Angeles and Seattle, zero cross-continental travel, a starting XI with genuine European club-level quality at every position – the structural edges stack in one direction and the price reflects fair value.
