The 80% Penalty Curse That Ended Germany and Netherlands at the 2026 World Cup

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Dramatic view of soccer penalty spot and goal in packed stadium with atmospheric lighting

Germany and the Netherlands both saw their World Cup campaigns come to an abrupt end on Monday when they were dumped out of the Round of 32 on penalties.

For the Germans, four-time winners of the tournament, it was one of the biggest World Cup upsets in recent history when Paraguay secured a 4-3 penalty shootout win. At the same time, fellow European giants the Netherlands lost to Morocco.

Penalty Curse Finds Germany And Netherlands

Germany entered their Round of 32 clash against Paraguay as heavy favorites. The match ended 1-1 after extra time, and Paraguay won the penalty shootout 4-3 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.

Jonathan Tah’s decisive miss, ballooning high over the crossbar, sealed Germany’s elimination. It was their first-ever penalty shootout defeat at a World Cup finals.

Hours earlier, the Netherlands went out the same way. Their tie against Morocco finished 1-1 after extra time, and Morocco won the shootout 3-2, with Achraf Hakimi and Yahia Attiyat Allah keeping their nerve while Dutch nerves failed.

Immediately after the game, OptaJohan revealed the penalty curse on social media. A tweet said: “80% – Eight of the last ten players to be subbed on after the 115th minute of play at the EUROs or FIFA World Cup missed their penalty in the following shootout (80%). Cursed.”

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The Eight Players the Curse Has Already Claimed

  • Jamie Carragher – England vs Portugal, 2006 World Cup QF: subbed on in the 119th minute, penalty saved; England lost 3-1 on penalties.
  • Simone Zaza – Italy vs Germany, Euro 2016 QF: subbed on around the 120th minute, sent his penalty high over the bar with one of the most visually chaotic run-ups in shootout history; Italy lost 6-5.
  • Rodri – Spain vs Switzerland, Euro 2020 QF: subbed on in the 119th minute, penalty saved. Spain won the shootout anyway, making Rodri the only player on this list whose miss did not cost his team elimination.
  • Marcus Rashford – England vs Italy, Euro 2020 final: subbed on in the 120th minute, hit the post; England lost 3-2.
  • Jadon Sancho – England vs Italy, Euro 2020 final: subbed on in the 120th minute alongside Rashford, penalty saved; England lost 3-2.
  • Pablo Sarabia – Spain vs Morocco, 2022 World Cup R16: subbed on in the 118th minute, hit the post; Spain lost 3-0 on penalties in a catastrophic shootout collapse.
  • Badr Benoun – Morocco vs Spain, 2022 World Cup R16: subbed on in the 120th minute, penalty saved. Morocco still won, making Benoun the second outlier in the dataset.
  • Fabian Balbuena – Germany vs Paraguay, 2026 World Cup R32: subbed on in the 120th minute but save by Manuel Neuer. Paraguay still won.