Use our key Cesarewitch Handicap trends to help put history on your side and find the best profiles based on past winners of Saturday’s big Newmarket race.
For example – the race has only produced four winning favourites since 1993.
Cesarewitch Handicap – The Big Highlight At Newmarket On Saturday
With £90,000 in prize money up for grabs to the winner of the 2025 Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday’s big Newmarket race is one of the most valuable handicaps on the horse racing calendar.
Last year the race was covered in controversy as the winner Alphonse Le Grande was first past the post, but was thrown out with jockey Jamie Powell said to have used the whip too many times.
With the race, which is shown on the ITV Racing schedule, being awarded to the second Manxman.
However, connections lodged an appeal – saying the tenth strike made inadvertent contact with the horse and wasn’t deemed a ‘strike’ – which led to Alphonse Le Grande being given the race back.
Alphonse Le Grande is expected to be back in 2025 to defend his title and if successful would be looking to become the first ‘back-to-back’ Cesarewitch Handicap winner EVER.
Although the Brian Meehan-trained Aaim To Prosper did win the race in 2010 and 2012.
Saturday’s Cesarewitch Handicap is also a race that top Irish jumps trainer Willie Mullins has raided with success in recent years.
The Closutton handler has won the prize three times since 2018 and the bookies think he’s got a decent chance again – with his Hipop De Loire and Bunting two of those at the head of the market.
Cesarewitch Handicap Trends: Key Stats To Put Help Put History On Your Side
- 22/23 – Aged 4 or older
- 19/23 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
- 18/23 – Raced within the last 2 months
- 17/23 – Finished 4th or better in last race
- 17/23 – Won over at least 1m6f on the flat
- 16/23 – Aged 5 or older
- 15/23 – Double-figure price in the betting
- 14/23 – 3 or more previous flat runs that season
- 14/23 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
- 14/23 – Won over at least 2m on the flat
- 13/23 – Won by a NH trainer
- 12/23 – Run at the track before
- 10/23 – Won 4 or more times on the flat before
- 9/23 – The first three ALL returned a double-figure price
- 9/23 – Favourites placed
- 8/23 – Raced at Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
- 5/23 – Winning mares
- 4/23 – Favourites
- 5/23 – Won last race
- 3/23 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 7 winners)
- 3/23 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
- 3/23 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
- 3/23 – Winners from stall 1
- 2/23 – Trained by Johnston yard
- 2/23 – Trained by Brian Meehan
- 2/23 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
- Irish-trained – 6 of the last 8 winners
- Only two winners aged in double-figures since 1960
- The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 20/1
- All of the last 12 winners carried 9-2 or less
- Only 4 winning favourites since 1993
- The race is yet to see a ‘back-to-back’ winner
Cesarewitch Handicap Race Time, Date and Prize Money 2025
📅Date: Saturday 11th October 2025
⌚Time: 3:40pm
🏇Racecourse: Newmarket
💰Winning Purse: £90,195.00
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV
Only Four Winning Cesarewitch Handicap Favourites Have Won Since 1993
In the build-up to the 2025 Cesarewitch Handicap last year’s winner Alphonse Le Grande has been popular again in the betting.
He’s back on a 6lb higher mark though.
While the Willie Mullins-trained Hipop De Loire is also one of the 2025 fancies with the bookies, along with Reverend Hubert, from the shrewd Charles Byrnes team.
However, whichever horses does go off as favourite – punters should be wary that this super-competitive race has not been the best for favourites.
There have only been four market leaders winning since 1993. With the most recent Great White Shark in 2020.
Last year’s joint-jollies were Jacovec Cavern (10th) and Sea Of Sands (12th).
Cesarewitch Winning Favourites (Since 1993)
- 2006 – Detroit City (9/2 fav)
- 2009 – Darley Sun (9/2 fav)
- 2017 – Withhold (5/1 fav)
- 2020 – Great White Shark (9/2 fav)
Make 9st 2lbs Or Less Your Cesarewitch Handicap Weight Cut-Off
With a massive 83% of the last 23 winners of the Cesarewitch Handicap carrying 9st 2lbs or less, then this has been a profitable angle in the past.
Backed up again in 2023 when The Shunter won carrying 9st 1lbs and last year when Alphonse Le Grand had only 8st 3lbs.
In fact, ALL of the last 12 winners carried 9st 2lbs or less, with 67% of those also winning with just 8st 11lbs or less on their backs.
Respect Horses That Finished 4th Or Better Last Time Out
Next up is to look at recent form as 17 of the last 23 winners (74%) finished 4th or better in their most recent race.
Yes, a lot will fit the bill here, but it’s worth applying to the race as this will still knock some out.
But only five of the last 23 won last time out.
Plus, with 18 of the last 23 winners (78%) running in the last two months – we are also looking for horses that have had a recent spin.
Horses Aged 5+ Have The Best Cesarewitch Record Recently
We’ve probably only got two horses aged 3 in the 2024 Cesarewitch Handicap – Belgravian and Pole Star – but the last winner of this age (3) was Darley Sun in 2009.
Since 1983, the race has only produced four winners aged 3. With last year’s hero Alphonse Le Grand aged 5.
22 of the last 23 have been aged 4+, with 17 of those aged 5+, which makes the runners aged 5 or older the ones with the most recent history on their side.
However, at the other end of the age spectrum, with it being a race that often attracts National Hunt horses, it’s no shock that we’ve also seen winners aged 7+ in recent years.
With The Shunter, who could line-up again, winning aged 10 in 2023 and Caracciola winning at 11 in 2008.
The Irish Have Had A Top Cesarewitch Handicap Record Since 2018
Finally, we’ve mentioned the good record of Willie Mullins in the Cesarewitch Handicap, but the Irish in general have had a decent time of it of late.
Former Grand National-winning handler Emmet Mullins was responsible for the 2023 winner The Shunter, while in 2022 Charles Byrnes sent over Run For Oscar to win.
Tony Martin also trained the winner in 2007 when Leg Spinner bowled his rivals over and he was involved in the Mrs C O’Leary-trained winner Alphonse Le Grand last year.
Cesarewitch Runners From Ireland 2024
- Queenstown
- Reverend Hubert
- The Shunter
- Winter Fog
- Toll Stone
- Ndaawi
- Small Fry
- Bunting
- Dawn Rising
- Hipop De Loire
There Has Never Been A ‘Back-To-Back’ Cesarewitch Winner
Last year’s controversial Cesarewitch winner – Alphonse Le Grande – is expected to be back on Saturday too.
He’s rated 6lbs higher this time and has already been well-supported in the betting, with the bookies making him one of the favourites.
However, the Tony Martin-trained 6 year-old will be looking to break a 186-year record in the race – that have NEVER seen a ‘back-to-back’ winner.
Yes, Aaim To Prosper won the race in 2010 and 2012 – but not in consecutive seasons.
Therefore Alphonse Le Grande will be hoping to create some Newmarket history in a race that was first run in 1839.
The 2023 winner The Shunter is running again too though – he’s back rated 3lbs higher and aged 12. He’ll be bidding to do what Aaim To Prosper did and regain his Cesarewitch crown.
But the oldest winner since the 1960’s was Caracciola in 2008 and there have only been two double-figure age winners since 1960.
Cesarewitch Handicap Recent Winners (Last 10 Years)
- 2024 – Alphonse Le Grand (33/1)
- 2023 – The Shunter (14/1)
- 2022 – Run For Oscar (4/1)
- 2021 – Buzz (8/1)
- 2020 – Great White Shark (9/2 fav)
- 2019 – Stratum (25/1)
- 2018 – Low Sun (10/1)
- 2017 – Withhold (5/1 fav)
- 2016 – Sweet Selection (7/1)
- 2015 – Grumeti (50/1)
- 2014 – Big Easy (10/1)
WATCH: Alphonse Le Grande Winning The 2024 Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket
