The recent 2025 Arkle Novices’ Chase winner Jango Baie will be a popular pick to get punters off to the perfect start at this week’s Aintree Grand National Festival in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase.
However, despite this Nicky Henderson-trained 6 year-old looking to have an obvious chance – especially with the longer trip likely to suit – he’s still got a big Manifesto Novices’ Chase trend against him.
ALL Of The Last 15 Manifesto Novices’ Chase Winners DIDN’T Win Their Last Race
This season’s Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival will be remembered for two things.
1. The storming late run of the winner Jango Baie
2. The first of the big Cheltenham favourites (Majborough) to lose
The winner Jango Baie is back out again here in the Aintree Grand National Festival opener – the Manifesto Novices’ Chase – in a bid to try and add this Grade One to his CV.
However, in recent years this race hasn’t been a good one for horses coming here off the back of a victory – ALL of the last 15 winners were beaten in their last outing.
Which means this huge Manifesto Novices’ Chase stat will be something Jango Baie will need to overcome if he’s to follow up his Cheltenham win here at Aintree.
The other last-time-out winners in the race – who also have this stat to defy – are Gidleigh Park, Mark Of Gold, The Kalooko Kid and Rubaud for the Paul Nicholls yard, who are 0-16 in the contest too.
You can also see more of Andy Newton’s Aintree Festival trends on day one here.
WATCH: Jango Baie Winning The 2025 Arkle Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
Only ONE Winning Manifesto Novices’ Chase Favourite In The Last 15 Runnings
The other big Manifesto Novices’ Chase trend that could be against Jango Baie – should he go off favourite – is that this race hasn’t been a great one for market leaders.
We’ve only seen ONE winning favourite in the last 15 renewals – which was Captain Conan, who won as the 6/5 jolly in 2013.
That said, despite the poor record of the market leader – the last 10 winners have still all returned 17/2 or shorter. And 8 of the last 10 were 5/1 or less.
Last year’s favourite was Grey Dawning – who could only manage third.
However, the good news for Jango Baie backers is that this is a tight betting heat – with the Willie Mullins runner Impaire Et Passe having now leapfrogged Jango to be the market leader.
While, if you are still sticking with Jango Baie – you’ll be pleased to hear trainer Nicky Henderson is the joint winning-most stable in the race.
He’s fired in two winners since the race was first run in 2009 – the same as Philip Hobbs.
Manifesto Novices’ Chase Details
đź“…Date: Thursday 3rd April 2025
⌚Time: 1:45pm
🏇Racecourse: Aintree
🔄Trip: 2m 4f
đź’·Winner: ÂŁ67,524
đź“ş TV: ITV / Racing TV
Manifesto Novices’ Chase Trends
- 15/15 – Didn’t win their last race
- 13/15 – Top 3 in the market
- 12/15 – Raced 8 or less times over hurdles
- 11/15 – Raced in the Arkle (6) or Golden Miller (5) at Cheltenham
- 12/14 – Officially rated 150+
- 12/13 – Raced between 4-5 times over fences
- 9/10 – Won exactly once over fences before
- 8/11 – Aged 6 years-old
- 3/8 – Irish-trained winners (last 2)
- 1/9 – Won by a 5 year-old
- 0/6 – Mare winners
- 0/10 – Winning favourites (1 of the last 15)
- Paul Nicholls runners are 0-16
2025 Manifesto Novices’ Chase Runners
There are nine Manifesto Novices’ Chase runners entered for Thursday’s Aintree race.
- Boombawn (Dan Skelton)
- Croke Park (Gordon Elliott)
- Fascile Mode (Thomas Mullins)
- Gidleigh Park (Harry Fry)
- Impaire Et Passe (Willie Mullins)
- Jango Baie (Nicky Henderson)
- Mark Of Gold (Gary & Josh Moore)
- Rubaud (Paul Nicholls)
- The Kalooki Kid (Nicky Richards)
Recent Manifesto Novices’ Chase Winners
- 2024 – Il Etait Temps
- 2023 – Banbridge
- 2022 – Millers Bank
- 2021 – Protektorat
- 2020 – No Race
- 2019 – Kalashnikov
- 2018 – Finian’s Oscar
- 2017 – Flying Angel
- 2016 – Arzal
- 2015 – Clarcam
- 2014 – Uxizandre
