John Smith's Cup Trends Show 83% Age Stat For York Handicap

John Smith’s Cup Trends Highlight 83% Age Stat That Can’t Be Ignored For Big York Handicap

Updated –Jul 12, 2025

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You can use our John Smith’s Cup trends and stats to help put history on your side by finding the best horse profiles based on past winners of Saturday’s big York race.

Including a massive 83% age stat that should help whittle down the runners to a more manageable size, plus three trainers that have won 50% of the last 14 runnings between them.

The John Smith’s Cup Trends Tell Us 83% Of Winners Since 2002 Were Aged 4 or 5

With a maximum of 22 runners, then any pointers in trying to narrow down the field will help ahead of Saturday’s John Smith’s Cup.

Which is where some of the key John Smith’s Cup trends come into force – especially a 83% age stat that has built up over the last 23 runnings.

History tells us that a massive 19 of the last 23 winners were aged either 4 or 5.

With only one winning 3 year-old (Wigmore Hall, 2010) and three horses aged 6 or 7.

In fact, the winning 7 year-old Educate (2016) was the only one since 1960.

While, despite 3 year-olds not having the best of records – it’s worth pointing out in the last ten runnings there have only been TWO horses aged 3 to even run.

Regardless, the stats still point towards horses aged 4 and 5 historically having the best return.

Who Are The 4 and 5 Year-Olds Running In The John Smith’s Cup This Year?

Thunder Run (4)
Naqeeb (5)
Hand Of God (4)
Soldier’s Empire (4)
Epictetus (5)
Defiance (4)
Silawi (5)
Fox Legacy (4)
Brioni (4)
See That Storm (4)
Have Secret (5)
Liberty Coach (4)
Romieu (4)
Paddy The Squire (5)

Trainer William Haggas, Roger Varian and Andrew Balding Have Won 50% Of The Last 14 Runnings Between Them

William Haggas Has Won The John Smith's Cup 3 Times Since 2011 — William Haggas Has Won The John Smith’s Cup 3 Times Since 2011

If you want to back a John Smith’s Cup based on the stables with the best records in the race – then look no further than William Haggas, Roger Varian and Andrew Balding.

This trio of trainers have won a massive 50% of the last 14 runnings of the John Smith’s Cup between them.

Haggas has fired three wins, with Varian and Balding two each.

All three are set to have 2025 runners in the race too.

With William Haggas having Archivist, Arabian Force and The King’s Falcon entered at this stage.

While Andrew Balding is set to run Fox Legacy and Roger Varian Defiance – they are all well-fancied in the market with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK.

Balding’s Two John Smith’s Cup Winners Were Owned By King Power Racing

We’ve mentioned the good record trainer Andrew Balding has in the John Smith’s Cup, but it’s also interesting that the Kingsclere stables two wins came with King Power-owned horses.

These were Johnny Drama in 2021 and Pivoine in 2019.

What adds further interest, is the sole Balding 2025 runner in the race is also owned by King Power – FOX LEGACY.

This 4 year-old also ticks the already mentioned key age John Smith’s Cup trend and was far from disgraced last time when 6th in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot last time out.

He was only beaten 3 3/4 lengths that day by the improving My Cloud and having won over 1m1f earlier this season will appreciate the longer 1m 2 1/2f trip.

Balding and jockey PJ McDonald also teamed up to win the big handicap at Haydock last weekend – the Old Newton Cup, so will be looking for more Saturday ITV Racing success here.