Use our key Ayr Cup trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of Saturday big sprint handicap at the Scottish track – including only seeing five winning favourites since 1980 and a trainer that has won the prize five times since 2007.Â
Ayr Gold Cup Trends Say Favourites Have a Poor Record Since 1980 (but have done better in the last 10 years)
Since 1980 the Ayr Gold Cup has produced just five winning favourites.
Therefore, once we know the market leader for Saturday’s big race, the Ayr Gold Cup trends suggest horse racing fans should go carefully with those at the head of the market.
However, there is some hope for favourite backers as four of these favourites have come since 2015 – meaning the jolly has a much better 40% strike-rate over this 10-year spell. But one of those did come in the 2018 dead-heat.
A lot can change between now at the race on Saturday, but the likes of Northern Ticker, Ain’t Nobody and Stewards’ Cup winner Two Tribes are near the head of the market with the horse racing betting sites.
In recent years, the Ayr Gold Cup has also seen 54% of favourites unplaced in the last 24 runnings.
Including last year’s market leader American Affair, who was only 16th – but it’s remarkable to say that horse is now a Group One winner after landing the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot in June.
Trainer Kevin Ryan Has A Top Ayr Gold Cup Record
A trainer called Tom Dawson won the Ayr Gold Cup 15 times in the 1800’s and since then not many have come close to challenging that big haul.
However, if you are looking for a handler that likes to target this race – you should end your search with Kevin Ryan.
The North Yorkshire-based trainer has five past Ayr Gold Cup winners since 2007, so anything he runs should be respected.
Including winning the prize four times since 2011 – his first was Advanced in 2007 and most recent Bielsa in 2021.
Other trainers to note with good recent records are – Karl Burke (3 wins), Richard Fahey (2 wins), Andrew Balding (2 wins) and David O’Meara (2 wins).
Of those, the Karl Burke team won the race last year in 2024 with Lethal Levi and actually had the 1-2-3 with Silkie Wilkie and Korker taking silver and bronze for Burke.
- Kevin Ryan Runners 2025 – Ain’t Nobody, Hammer The Hammer, We Never Stop and Bergerac
- Karl Burke Runners 2025 – No entries
- David O’Meara Runners 2025 – Toyotomi
- Andrew Balding Runners 2025 – Purosangue
Make 9st 1lb Your Ayr Gold Cup Trends Weight Cut-Off
Being a handicap sprint run over 6f, then weight carried is key too.
With that in mind, the Ayr Gold Cup trends point us towards 9st 1lbs being your weight cut-off point – with 17 of the last 24 winning with 9st 1lb or more – (71%).
The 2024 winner (Lethal Levi) carried carried on this trend with 9st 7lbs and four of the last five have won with 9st-2lbs or more.
Since 2020, the winners carried 9-5, 9-1, 9-5, 9-2 and 9-7.
This year, there are five horses carrying 9st or less that have this stat to overcome – Jubilee Walk, Fahrenheit Seven, Desert Falcon, Bergerac and Kodi Lion.
Ayr Gold Cup Trends and Stats 2025
- 24/24 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
- 21/24 – Had 3 or more wins
- 21/24 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
- 18/24 – Didn’t win their last race
- 17/24 – Double-figure stall
- 17/24 – 9-1 or more in weight
- 15/24 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
- 15/24 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
- 15/24 – Rated 90-101
- 13/24 – 7 or more runs that season
- 13/24 – Favourites unplaced
- 12/24 – Raced at Doncaster (4), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
- 13/24 – Ran at Ayr before
- 5/24 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
- 4/24 – Favourites (or joint) (only 5 winning favs since 1980)
- 2/24 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 12)
- 2/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 19)
- 0/24 – Filly or mare winners
- The last 8 winners were drawn 12+
- Trainer Karl Burke has won the race three times (1994, 1998 & 2024)
- 17 of the last 20 winners carried 9-0 or more in weight
- 15 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 20 winners came from stall 8)
- Since 1980 just 8 winners aged 6 or older
- Since 1980 just 2 winners aged 7 or older
- The last horse to win ‘back-to-back’ was Heronslea in 1930/31
- Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat
Ayr Gold Cup 2025 Time and Date
đź“…Date: Saturday 20th September 2025
⌚Time: 3:35pm
🏇Racecourse: Ayr (6f)
đź’°Winning Purse: ÂŁ92,772
đź“ş TV: ITV and Racing TV
Look Out For Horses Draw In A Double-Figure Stall
With a maximum of 25 Ayr Gold Cup runners, then naturally the race will have more horses drawn in double figures – 16 as opposed to nine.
But it’s still worth noting that those drawn high have won 17 of the last 24 runnings (71%), while 15 of the last 16 came from stalls 8 or higher (94%), which suggests we can at least rule out those drawn 1-7.
Last year’s Ayr Gold Cup winner, Lethal Levi was drawn in 20, with the winners since 2018 coming from stalls 17, 21, 24, 13, 25, 12, 14 and 20.
ALL of the last seven winners were drawn 12+.
However, the final interesting Ayr Gold Cup draw stat is that 4 of the last 20 winners (20%) came from the 8 berth.
Ayr Gold Cup Draw 2025Â
The draw for the ÂŁ180,000 @Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup is complete! @ayrracecourse pic.twitter.com/NQsXfSzPFr
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) September 18, 2025
Horses Aged 4 or 5 Have The Best Recent Record
Next up is the age of horse to look for, with those aged either 4 or 5 having the best record in recent years.
Significantly in 2023 and last year’s winner Lethal Levi were both was aged 5 and since 2016 there have been seven winners aged either 4 or 5.
While in the last 24 runnings this is further backed up with 63% of the winners (15) again aged 4 or 5.
In fact, since 1980, there has only two winners aged 7 or older.
Meaning the older runners in the 2025 Ayr Gold Cup field will have this stat to overcome.
Summerghand won aged 8 in 2022, but since 1994 EVERY winner has been aged 6 or younger.
While 3 year-olds are not totally discounted – with two winners (Angel Alexander, 2019) and (Don’t Touch, 2015) in the last 10 runnings.
Look Out For A Top Four Finish Last Time Out – But Maybe NOT WinningÂ
The final of our main Ayr Gold Cup trends to look out for are horses that recorded a ‘top 4’ finish last time out.
This is backed up with 63% of the last 24 runners finishing fourth or better in their last race before winning the Ayr Gold Cup.
However, with 18 of the last 24 winners also NOT winning their last race – then maybe we are looking for horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out.
These horses below finished in the top four in their last race.
- Northern Ticker (1st)
- Two Tribes (4th)
- Flash Harry (1st)
- Aramram (3rd)
- Run Boy Run (4th)
- Fahrenheit Seven (1st)
- Jubilee Walk (2nd)
- Desert Falcon (1st)
- Bergerac (4th)
Ayr Gold Cup Recent Winners (last 10 years)
- 2024 – Lethal Levi (20/1)
- 2023 – Significantly (8/1 jfav)
- 2022 – Summerghand (12/1)
- 2021 – Bielsa (15/2)
- 2020 – Nahaarr (7/2 fav)
- 2019 – Angel Alexander (28/1)
- 2018 – Baron Bolt (28/1) & Son Of A Rest (5/1 fav) (dead-heat)
- 2017 – Donjuan Triumphant (13/2)
- 2016 – Brando (11/1)
- 2015 – Don’t Touch (6/1 fav)
The Last Horse To Win ‘Back-to-Back’ Ayr Gold Cups Was Heronslea In 1930 and 1931
Last year’s Ayr Gold Cup was won by the Karl Burke-trained Lethal Levi. Who powered away to win by three lengths (watch below).
However, the horse has progressed further this season and is now rated 114 and despite having an initial entry for the 2025 race – was taken out at the five-day stage.
He’s now contesting Listed and Group races.
Meaning we won’t get to see the current Ayr Gold Cup champ in action and also meaning the run of NO ‘back-to-back’ winners will carry on for another year.
The last horse to win the race in back-to-back years was a runner called Heronslea in 1930 and 1931.
More recently, the Dandy Nicholls runner Funfair Wane took the prize in 2002 and 2004. Just not consecutive seasons.
