We all like to celebrate the success of a big outside bet, but for the bookies a surprise winner is generally good news.
A 100-1 rank outsider will grab the headlines with an unlikely victory.
The real earnings for the sportsbooks come from heavy betting on a favourite who slips up.
Last weekend’s Premier League fixtures served up prime examples.
Arsenal’s goalless draw at Nottingham Forest and West Ham’s win at London rivals Tottenham left “punters bruised and bookmakers smiling” according to Shane Orton, Sportscasting’s Head of Betting PR.
Turning The Tables
Bournemouth’s 1-1 draw at Brighton on Monday continued the weekend’s trend of Premier League teams ignoring the form book.
None of the top four managed a win between them, while the bottom six clubs in the table all collected valuable points.
That surely Is not a trend we’ll see repeated in this week’s full round of Championship fixtures.
Cast adrift at the foot of the table, Sheffield Wednesday face Birmingham in a showdown that could impact the Championship sack race betting odds.
The same could be said for Leicester’s trip to Wrexham with uncertainty over the future of Foxes under-fire boss Marti Cifuentes.
Only the bold will be prepared to back a repeat of what happened in the weekend’s Premier League games.
Premier League Sack Race Hotting Up
Relegation threatened West Ham caused Saturday’s big upset by winning 2-1 at Tottenham with a Callum Wilson goal in stoppage time.
That has increased speculation over who could be the next Tottenham manager with Thomas Frank’s position looking untenable.
At the same time it relieved the pressure on Hammers boss Nuno Espirito Santo whose odds lengthened in the Premier League sack race.
Oliver Glasner’s outburst after a 2-1 defeat at Sunderland has raised the possibility that we could see the next Crystal Palace manager arrive before the Austrian’s contract expires at the end of the season.
Arsenal Draw A Blank
Leaders Arsenal, plus Manchester City, Aston Villa and Liverpool from the top four teams all failed to bag three points for a win.
That was welcome news for the bookies.
“It started early doors on Saturday and it didn’t take long for things to turn in the bookmakers’ favour,” said Orton.
“Manchester City going down at Old Trafford set the tone straight away, because that was a result very few punters saw coming.
“Then you had Liverpool failing to beat lowly Burnley at Anfield, which was probably the sorest one of the lot for gamblers.
“That was backed heavily as a banker, and when those short-priced home favourites don’t deliver, it really hurts.
“Arsenal rounded off a great Saturday for the bookies by not getting the job done against Nottingham Forest.
“By that point you could already feel the momentum swinging firmly away from the punters.”
Favourites Flop Again
Sunday’s games could not reverse the trend of the favourites coming up short.
Newcastle failed to break down a resilient Wolves who sit bottom of the Premier League.
It created an unwanted stat for Toon winger Anthony Gordon who has now gone a full calendar year without scoring a goal in open play.
“Sunday just carried on in the same vein,” said Orton.
“Newcastle United couldn’t win away at rock-bottom Wolverhampton Wanderers.
“Then high-flying Aston Villa were beaten at home by an injury-hit Everton.
“When results like that stack up across a weekend, punters inevitably come away bruised — and bookmakers are the ones left smiling.”
Super Sub Michael Olise Shines
It was a different story in the Bundesliga where perennial favourites Bayern Munich thumped hosts Leipzig 5-1.
Harry Kane was among the goalscorers yet again, but there was money to be made on young midfielder Lennart Karl.
It was not for anything that the 17-year-old did on the pitch though.
Thanks to bet365’s ‘Sub On, Play On’ mechanic, any betting on Karl was transferred to his second-half replacement.
That sub was Michael Olise.
“Bayern Munich hit five past Leipzig with Harry Kane finding the net,” said Steve Freeth, a trader for bet365.
“For once, he’s not the main story here.
“That belonged to Lennart Karl, who departed the field on 56 minutes with just one blocked shot to his name.
“His replacement, Michael Olise, produced three assists, three shots on target and scored a goal off the bench.
“That was much to the delight of Karl backers, thanks to our ’Sub On, Play On’ concession.”
Princess Keri Takes A Tumble
Princess Keri provided a timely reminder that there’s no such thing as a safe bet over the weekend.
She looked a sure-fire winner at the climax of the £25,000 mares’ handicap hurdle at Fakenham on Sunday.
1.01 BEATEN 🤢
Princess Keri hit 1/100 in-running
then this happened…
— Betfair Racing (@BetfairRacing) January 18, 2026
The 3-1 favourite hit 1.01 (1-100) on Betfair exchange with a six-length lead heading for the last.
A few strides after jumping the hurdle, jockey Ned Fox became unseated.
Taking the lead, 13/2 shot Miss Cynthia galloped home for the win.
