The 2026 Carabao Cup Final is here. Arsenal and Manchester City meet at Wembley on Sunday 22 March (kick-off 4:30pm GMT) in the season’s first major domestic showpiece.
Arsenal sealed their place in the final after beating Chelsea 4-2 on aggregate in the semi-finals, while Manchester City demolished holders Newcastle 5-1 over two legs.
Here are our top Arsenal and Manchester City betting tips, powered by AI analysis.
Arsenal vs Manchester City AI Betting Tips
- Gemini’s Tip: Arsenal to win (90 minutes)
- Grok’s Tip: Both Teams to Score
- Chat GPT’s Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
🤖 Gemini’s Betting Tip: Arsenal to win (90 minutes) — 5/4
Arsenal have had City’s number in recent meetings, and Mikel Arteta’s side enter the final having recorded four wins and one draw in their last five matches across all competitions.
City’s crashed out of the Champions League at the Round of 16 for a third consecutive season under Guardiola, losing to Real Madrid in demoralising fashion.
The Gunners have earned the tag of favourites and Gemini expects them to justify it.
🤖 Grok’s Betting Tip: Both Teams to Score — 13/20
Both teams to score is a consistent trend in this fixture and Grok reckons this looks the standout value market for Sunday.
Seven of the previous ten meetings between Arsenal and Manchester City ended with both sides getting on the scoresheet.
With both managers setting up to win the game rather than preserve a clean sheet, goals at both ends looks highly likely.
🤖 Chat GPT’s Betting Tip: Over 2.5 Goals — 17/20
The goals market is where Chat GPT expects strong value in this final.
Arsenal scored nine goals across their four Carabao Cup matches this season, averaging 2.25 per game, Arsenal and City’s route to the final featured 12 goals in five games.
Both squads are loaded with attacking talent, and the stage of a Wembley final is one that tends to produce open, ambitious football between top sides.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in the majority of recent meetings between these clubs.
Arsenal vs Manchester City Form Guide, Head-to-Head & Key Stats
Arsenal are currently on a six-game unbeaten run against City, though four of those meetings ended level.
Seven of the previous ten encounters between the two clubs ended with both teams scoring.
Manchester City are chasing a ninth League Cup title overall and a fifth under Guardiola — no manager has won the Carabao Cup more often.
Arsenal’s record in EFL Cup finals is historically poor, with six defeats in eight appearances in the competition’s final.
The last time these sides met in a Carabao Cup final was 2018, when City won 3-0 thanks to goals from Sergio Aguero, Vincent Kompany and David Silva.
Pep Guardiola has faced Mikel Arteta 15 times since the latter left City’s coaching staff in 2019. Guardiola has won eight, drawn three, and lost four of those encounters.
Arsenal vs Manchester City Key stats:
Arsenal scored nine Carabao Cup goals across four matches this season, conceding just three — an average of 2.25 goals scored per game.
City’s Carabao Cup run featured 12 goals scored and just two conceded across five matches, including a 5-1 aggregate win over Newcastle in the semi-finals.
The Gunners have lost just three times in 49 matches so far this season.
City were dumped out of the Champions League by Real Madrid 5-1 on aggregate this week.
The two teams played out a 1-1 Premier League draw at the Emirates back in September, with Gabriel Martinelli scoring a late equaliser.
Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction – Carabao Cup Final 2026
This is the biggest domestic cup final in years, pitting the Premier League’s top two sides against each other at Wembley.
Arsenal arrive in outstanding form, unbeaten in their last 14 matches and leading the Premier League, while Manchester City come into the game under pressure after struggling for consistency in recent weeks.
Arsenal are currently on a six-game unbeaten run against City, though four of those meetings ended level — and seven of the previous ten encounters between the two clubs ended with both teams scoring.
That attacking trend, combined with City’s desperation for a result following their Champions League exit, points to a game with goals at both ends.
Arsenal’s superior momentum and home-final advantage at Wembley make them the side to back, but expect City to make them work for it.
We’re backing Arsenal to win 2-1 in what should be a classic cup final.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City
Arsenal vs Manchester City Odds – Carabao Cup Final 2026
- Arsenal win — 4/6
- Draw — 12/5
- Manchester City win — 11/10
Arsenal Team News & Predicted Lineup
Mikel Arteta faces a decision in goal: Kepa Arrizabalaga has been Arsenal’s cup goalkeeper throughout the competition, but David Raya is the undisputed Premier League number one and may come in for the showpiece.
Mikel Merino is ruled out for the remainder of the season following foot surgery, while Martin Odegaard and Jurrien Timber are expected to feature despite recent absences.
Arteta will make the call on whether Kai Havertz and Victor Gyokeres starts in attack.
Arsenal Predicted XI (4-3-3): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Zubimendi, Odegaard/Eze; Saka, Gyokeres, Martinelli
Manchester City Team News & Predicted Lineup
Erling Haaland is fit despite being withdrawn early in the Champions League second leg against Real Madrid.
Josko Gvardiol remains sidelined with the tibial fracture he sustained in January, while Mateo Kovacic is back in contention after a lengthy spell on the sidelines.
Marc Guehi is ineligible having joined after the cup registration cut-off point. James Trafford has been City’s cup goalkeeper throughout and is expected to retain his place at Wembley.
Manchester City Predicted XI (4-3-3): Trafford; Khusanov, Stones, Dias, O’Reilly; Rodri, Kovacic, Reijnders; Foden, Haaland, Savinho
