The Tyne-Wear Derby returns to the Premier League on Sunday 22 March as Newcastle United host Sunderland at St James’ Park (kick-off 12:00pm GMT).
Newcastle sit ninth in the table while Sunderland are 13th, but league positions mean nothing in a derby.
This is one of the most fiercely contested rivalries in English football and Sunday’s fixture is set to be no exception.
Here are our best bets, predictions and team news powered by AI analysis.
Newcastle vs Sunderland AI Betting Tips
🤖 Gemini’s Betting Tip: Newcastle to Win — 13/20
Newcastle have won eight home matches at St James’ Park this season and the prospect of a derby fixture, particularly after the humiliation in Barcelona, gives this squad every incentive to deliver a strong performance in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland have won just three away games all season, and their recent run of form has been alarming — dropping ten places in the table in under three months. Gemini is backing a home win.
🤖 Grok’s Betting Tip: Over 2.5 Goals — 17/20
Newcastle have averaged 1.69 goals per match at home this season, with over 2.5 goals landing in nearly 69% of their home Premier League games.
Sunderland may be struggling for form but they are not without attacking options, and a derby occasion tends to open games up. The goals trend at St James’ Park this season strongly supports backing Over 2.5.
🤖 Chat GPT’s Betting Tip: Over 4.5 Match Cards — 8/15
The reverse fixture at the Stadium of Light earlier this season saw nine cards shown in total, a figure that reflects just how intense this rivalry gets at both ends of the pitch.
Anthony Taylor will referee the fixture, with Paul Howard on VAR duty — a referee who is rarely shy with his cards in high-intensity matches. Over 4.5 cards looks well-priced.
Newcastle vs Sunderland Form Guide, Head-to-Head & Key Stats
In the last 28 all-time meetings between the clubs, Newcastle have won nine, Sunderland ten, with nine draws.
Sunderland won the reverse fixture at the Stadium of Light 1-0 in December 2025.
Sunderland have lost six of their last nine Premier League fixtures and have slipped from sixth to 13th in the table.
Gordon leads the way in all competitions with 16 goals, while Bruno Guimarães has chipped in with nine in the league.
A win would see Sunderland leapfrog Newcastle in the Premier League table.
Newcastle vs Sunderland Key stats:
Newcastle were heavily beaten 7-2 by Barcelona in midweek, crashing out of the Champions League.
The Magpies have scored in 93% of their home Premier League fixtures this season.
Sunderland have won 16 points from losing positions this season, second only to Aston Villa.
The Black Cats have a -16.05 xG difference this season.
Newcastle have played 13 matches across February and March alone.
Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction
The Magpies have won three of their last five Premier League matches and Anthony Gordon has been in superb form, scoring in the recent win over Chelsea to take his tally across all competitions to 15.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have lost six of their previous nine fixtures, dropping from sixth place on matchday 17 to 13th, and arrive having won just three away games all season.
The form book points firmly toward a Newcastle win, and at St James’ Park the Magpies have the added advantage of an electric home crowd driven by derby fever.
Expect a feisty, card-heavy affair with goals — we’re backing Newcastle to win 2-1.
Prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Sunderland
Newcastle vs Sunderland Odds – Tyne-Wear Derby 2026
- Newcastle win — 13/20
- Draw — 14/5
- Sunderland win — 4/1
Newcastle Team News & Predicted Lineup
Sandro Tonali is a doubt after coming off during the Champions League defeat to Barcelona with a groin problem, though he is thought to have avoided a serious injury.
Jacob Ramsey is available following suspension, but Lewis Miley, Emil Krafth, and Bruno Guimarães are all ruled out.
Yoane Wissa is expected to drop to the bench, with Nick Woltemade likely deployed in a midfield role.
Anthony Gordon has been operating more centrally and is expected to continue in that position.
Newcastle Predicted XI (4-3-3): Ramsdale; Livramento, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Tonali, Ramsey, Woltemade; Murphy, Gordon, Barnes
Sunderland Team News & Predicted Lineup
Romaine Mundle, Reinildo, and Daniel Ballard are expected to miss out, continuing a difficult spell of injury absences for Régis Le Bris.
Robin Roefs and Nordi Mukiele are both back in first-team training and are expected to return to the starting XI.
Noah Sadiki will partner Granit Xhaka in central midfield, with Chemsdine Talbi and Habib Diarra in attacking roles. B
rian Brobbey leads the line.
Sunderland Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Roefs; Geertruida, Mukiele, Alderete, Hume; Sadiki, Xhaka; Talbi, Diarra, Rigg; Brobbey
