Andy Newton’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Tips: 1-2-3 Longchamp Best Bets

See below Andy Newton’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe tips and 1-2-3 best bets as horse racing fans look forward to the richest flat race in Europe on Sunday. 

Andy Newton’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Tips and 1-2-3 Best Bets

🥇DARYZ
🥈MINNIE HAUK
🥉KALPANA

For me, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is all about the DRAW.

With 18 (now 17) runners, the starting berth has always been a huge help in hunting out the Longchamp winner.

Which is why looking at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe trends is a must.

Why?

Well, a massive 18 of the last 23 winners came from gates 8 or lower – which is a solid 78% return over this period.

While 16 or the last 23 hailed from stalls 6 or lower (70%).

In short, getting caught out wide around Lonchamp is not ideal – especially in a big field, which is why two of the three Japanese Arc runners – Byzantine Dream (15) and Croix Du Nord (17) have had their chance made harder by the draw.

Their other runner – Alohi Alii, however, has had better luck here with stall 4.

Last year’s winner Bluestocking got the job done from gate 3, plus last year seven of the top nine finishers were drawn 8 OR LOWER.

A similar thing happened in 2023 too when Ace Impact won from gate 8 as ALL of the first six home started in stalls 9 OR LOWER.

Last Seven Arc Winners and Draws

So – now we know the horses drawn 1-8 have the best strike-rate – what are they?

Prix de l’Arc Triomphe Draw 2025

Of these eight Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe runners we can now start the whittling down process.

For me, some of these we can rule out for other reasons.

Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget is always feared in the Arc – he’s won two of the last five.

But I’d worry about the softer ground for his Leffard, with all runs on good-to-soft or quicker.

Giavellotto Is Surely Too Old

A similar thing for the Marco Botti-trained Giavellotto, who has also shown his best form on the AW or quicker on the turf. While at the age of 6 he’s just too old.

The last horse aged 6+ to win was Motrico (7) in 1932.

Quisisana is 5 too and despite some winners of this age recently – there have still only been three since 1989.

Cualificar ticks a lot of boxes as William Buick looks for his first win in the race.

He won the Prix Neil last time out at the track – but will be looking to become the first horse since Rail Link in 2006 to follow up in the Arc.

Sosie is respected from the powerful Andrew Fabre yard, who have eight Arc wins. He was also sent off favourite last year (drawn 5) but was only 4th.

He got the 3 year-old allowance last year too – but now a year older has to race with 6lbs more.

The Far East raider Alohi Alii beat Rashabar and Cualificar easily in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano last time and looks Japan’s best chance of winning the race for the first time.

But is stepping up in trip here and is also up in grade.

All this leaves us with DARYZ and MINNIE HAUK. 

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Tips: Take Daryz To Deliver For France

DARYZ gets the verdict – with draw 2 looking fine.

Enable won her first Arc in 2017 from gate 2 and Vadeni was a close second from this stall in 2022.

This Aga Khan Studs colt is also bred for the job – being by 2009 Arc winner Sea The Stars and looks sure to improve for the step up in trip.

Yes, the niggle is that 20 of the last 23 Arc winners had won over 1m4f before.

But based on the way he finished last time in the Prix du Prince d’Orange behind Croix De Nord it’s hard to not think the 1m4f distance won’t suit (watch below).

Softer ground is fine too, with that last run coming on ‘very soft’ and winning on ‘soft’ in the past.

His only blot (6th) came in that muddling Juddmonte International – which was run on ‘good-to-firm’ ground.

While he’s got great form here at Longchamp with three wins – 1-1-1-2.

He’s taken to give the Aga Khan Stud their first win since Zarkava in 2008 – who won from gate 1.

And would also be the first winner in the race for jockey Mickael Barzalona and trainer Francis-Henri Graffard.

Minnie Hauk and Kalpana Also Respected 

Aidan O’Brien likes to leave a nine-year gap between his Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe wins.

Taking the prize in 2007 (Dylan Thomas) and 2016 (Found) – so his 2025 runners Minnie Hauk and Los Angeles will be looking to carry on that run.

Minnie Hauk has won four Oaks races this season (Epsom, Irish, Cheshire and Yorkshire) and being a 3 year-old filly will get all the weight allowances – carrying only 8-9.

She’s won on soft ground too and with Ryan Moore still on the sidelines will have the services of two-time Arc winning rider Christophe Soumillon.

Gate 1 might not be 100% ideal, with the last winner there Zarkava in 2008 – but it’s certainly a lot better than being drawn wide.

With all the weight she gets and top connections – it’s hard to fault her chance, as long as she handles the track (first run here).

The race has also been a good one for the fillies with five winning since 2016 – which also bodes well for Kalpana.

Kalpana Is Yet To Finish Out Of The First Three

Kalpana is the other pick to run well – with gate 10 just about okay. Last year’s third Los Angeles had this stating berth.

She was the ante-post favourite for the race before losing to Giavellotto in the September Stakes – but will be better now back on the grass.

This Andrew Balding runner drifted in the market as a result of that defeat – which means she’s much better value now.

Don’t forget, before that Kempton lose, she ran a blinder to be second in the King George at Ascot to the classy Calandagan, who can’t run here as he’s a gelding.

Softer ground will be fine – having won the Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes last season with give.

And from 12 career starts, she’s yet to finish out of the first three (5 wins).

Kalpana also comes from top owners that love this race – Juddmonte (Khalid Abdullah) have taken the pot seven times, including last year with Bluestocking.

Andy Newton’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Tips and 1-2-3 Best Bets 

🥇DARYZ
🥈MINNIE HAUK
🥉KALPANA

When Is The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2025?

📅Date: Sunday 5th October 2025
⌚Time: 3:00pm
🏇Racecourse: Longchamp
💰Winning Purse: £2,361,157
📺 TV: ITV Racing Schedule / Sky Racing