St Andrew’s plays host to an intriguing cross-division FA Cup Fourth Round tie on Sunday morning, as Championship promotion hopefuls Birmingham City welcome Premier League Leeds United.
The “Tom Brady era” at Birmingham is moving into a phase of steady progress.
After steamrolling League One with a record 111 points last season, the Blues entered the Championship as one of the clear promotion favourites.
Under Chris Davies, they have adapted well to the step up in quality; while they aren’t currently leading the pack, sitting in 10th place and remaining competitive in the play-off conversation represents a solid foundation for a club of their stature.
Coming off a gritty 0-0 draw with West Brom in midweek, they remain a tough nut to crack at home.
Leeds United arrive in the West Midlands with their own spirits high after a dramatic midweek comeback.
Trailing 2-0 at Stamford Bridge, Daniel Farke’s men showed immense resilience to rescue a 2-2 draw against Chelsea, a result that keeps them clear of the immediate relegation scrap.
However, with top-flight survival still the ultimate goal, Farke faces the classic cup dilemma: use the momentum of the Chelsea comeback to push for a deep cup run, or rotate his squad to ensure his key men are fresh for the league battle.
Here is the full preview, including our best bets, predicted lineups, and correct score prediction.
Birmingham vs Leeds Best Bets and Betting Tips
Birmingham City to Qualify – 11/8
St Andrew’s has become a genuine fortress once again, and this price feels like it is ignoring the significant “motivation gap” between the two clubs.
Birmingham have been incredibly tough to beat at home, losing just once in their last eight matches in front of their own supporters, and they will treat this fixture as a marquee event to prove their Premier League credentials.
Leeds, meanwhile, are in the thick of a relentless top-flight survival fight.
After the emotional and physical drain of their battling 2-2 draw at Chelsea on Tuesday night, Daniel Farke is almost certain to protect his most valuable assets to avoid further injuries.
Birmingham to qualify—whether they nick it in 90 minutes or survive a penalty shootout—is the standout value play against a Leeds side that likely has one eye firmly fixed on their next league fixture.
Tomoki Iwata to be Carded – 9/2
With Paik Seung-ho likely sidelined, Tomoki Iwata is the man in the spotlight, albeit in a slightly unfamiliar role.
While a natural defensive midfielder, Iwata has frequently been deployed at right-back since October to cover for defensive injuries.
He currently averages 0.27 cards per 90 minutes (picking up 8 yellow cards already this season) and often relies on cynical “tactical” fouls when isolated against raw pace.
On Sunday, he will be tasked with marking one of Leeds’ rapid wide options.
Facing a direct, pacy winger who looks to drive to the byline, Iwata will likely be forced into bringing his man down to stop dangerous counter-attacks.
At 9/2, he is a prime candidate for a booking in what promises to be a feisty, high-pressure encounter.
Under 2.5 Goals – 1/1
Birmingham’s defence has tightened up significantly since the turn of the year, highlighted by their disciplined 0-0 draw against West Brom in midweek.
While they conceded more goals earlier in the season than they did during their dominant League One campaign, Chris Davies has successfully prioritised structural organisation in 2026.
On the other side, Leeds may find it difficult to break down a low block without the physical focal point of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is a major doubt.
Cup ties between teams in different divisions often become cagey affairs where the lower-league side sits deep to frustrate the visitors.
Expect a tactical battle where space is at a premium and clear-cut chances are rare.
Key Stats & Trends
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Home Strength: Birmingham have lost just once at home in their last eight matches across all competitions.
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Iwata’s Discipline: Tomoki Iwata has picked up 8 yellow cards in 30 Championship starts this season.
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Clean Sheet Struggle: Leeds have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last seven away fixtures.
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Defensive Lock: Birmingham have kept three clean sheets in their last five competitive games.
Birmingham vs Leeds Confirmed Lineups
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
Confirmed XI:
GK: Beadle
DEF: Osayi-Samuel, Panzo, Klarer, Wagner
MID: Doyle, Solis
MID:Â Vicente, Stansfield, Gray
FWD: Priske
Leeds (3-4-2-1)
Confirmed XI:
GK: Perri
DEF: Bornauw, Bijol, Gudmundsson
MID: Gnonto, Tanaka, Longstaff, Justin
MID: Okafor, Buonanotte
FWD:Â Nmecha
How to Watch Birmingham vs Leeds
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Date: Sunday, February 15, 2026
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Kick-off: 12:00 GMT
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Venue: St Andrew’s @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham
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TV Channel: TNT Sports 3
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Live Stream: Discovery+
Supporters outside the UK should check local broadcast listings, as coverage varies by territory.
Birmingham vs Leeds Match Winner Odds
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Birmingham City: 12/5
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Draw: 5/2
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Leeds United: 11/10
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change.
Birmingham vs Leeds Correct Score Prediction
Birmingham’s improved defensive organisation should be enough to frustrate a Leeds attack that won’t be operating at full strength.
However, the Blues lack the clinical edge required to kill off Premier League opposition within 90 minutes.
We expect a tense, physical 1-1 draw, eventually leading to the drama of a penalty shootout where the St Andrew’s crowd helps see the Blues through to the fifth round.
Birmingham 1-1 Leeds (Birmingham to win on penalties)
