Horse Racing

The SIX Horses That Tick The Most Grand National Trends For 2025

Andy Newton Sports Editor

Published05 Apr 2025

Disclosure

We publish independently audited content meeting strict editorial standards. Ads on our site are served by Google AdSense and are not controlled or influenced by our editorial team.

By using some big Grand National trends 2025 ahead of the Aintree race, you can put history on your side by finding the best profiles based on past winners of the world’s famous steeplechase.

So to help, SportsCasting’s horse racing expert – Andy Newton – has listed his key Grand National 2025 trends below.

But has also focused in on FIVE key stats and applied these to the Grand National runners involved in the race this year.

Plus a BONUS stat you don’t want to miss that has delivered the winner in 5 of the last 7 renewals.

FIVE Key Grand National Trends 2025 To Help Find The Aintree Winner

There will be a maximum of 34 runners heading to post for the big Aintree race on Saturday 5th April and with the contest steeped in history there are a stack of Grand National trends 2025.

While after applying the main stats to the runners – there are SIX 2025 National runners that seem to have a lot going for them. Read on to find out who these are.

Ran Within The Last 56 Days (31/33)

First up is to find the runners that will head into the race having raced within the last 56 days – which is the first negative for last year’s winner I Am Maximus, who was last in action 63 days ago in the Irish Gold Cup (1st Feb) at Leopardstown.

When I Am Maximus won the 2024 National, he’d last raced 49 days ago – after winning the Bobbyjo Chase at the end of February.

But this year will come to the Grand National off the back of a two month lay-off.

Let’s start the whittling down process – here are the runners that have raced 57+ days ago.

❌I Am Maximus (63)
❌Appreciate It (76)
❌Chantry House (70)
❌Perceval Legallois (63)
❌Horantzau d’Airy (62)
❌ Celebre d ‘Allen (143)

Having Their First Run In The Grand National (14/16)

The term ‘horses for courses‘ is chucked about a lot in the world of horse racing – and most of the time it’s right.

However, when it comes to the Grand National, having experience of the race itself isn’t always a big positive.

This is backed up with 14 of the last 16 winners (88%) making their debuts in the Aintree showcase race.

Of course, Tiger Roll kicked this trend into touch – winning in ‘back-to-back’ years in 2018 and 2019 – but history tells us previous race experience isn’t essential.

Of those left – here are the horses running in the Grand National in 2025 for the first time.

✅Iroko
✅Appreciate It
✅Percevak Legallois
✅Royale Pagaille
✅Chantry House
✅Intense Raffles
✅Stumptown
✅Hewick
✅Nick Rockett
✅Monbeg Genius
✅Senior Chief
✅Kandoo Kid
✅Grangeclare West
✅Minella Cocooner
✅Bravemansgame
✅Hitman
✅Fil Dor
✅Broadway Boy
✅Beauport
✅Conflated
✅Stay Away Fay
✅Threeunderthrufive
✅Idas Boy
✅Hyland
✅Twig
✅Horantzau d’Airy
✅Celebre d ‘Allen
✅Three Card Brag

Only Two Winners Since 1940 Were Aged 7

In recent years – some Grand National lovers have suggested the race is a bit easier to win these days after some changes to the fences and limited the number of runners to 34.

And, yes, there is some reasoning to this – however, the stats still remain that we’ve only had TWO winning 7 year-olds since 1940.

Noble Yeats defied this Grand National trend in 2022 – winning as a 7 year-old. But he was the first since Bogskar in 1940.

Since the Noble Yeats win – we’ve seen eleven more 7 year-olds try – including Limerick Lace, who was sent off joint-favourite, in 2024 – but they’ve all failed.

Gaillard Du Mesnil in 2023 has come closest – when third that year.

All this is NOT good news for big fancies Iroko and Intense Raffles, who are both aged 7 and two of the Grand National favourites with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK.

2025 Grand National 7 Year-Old Runners (from those left)

❌Iroko
❌Intense Raffles
❌Fil Dor
❌Broadway Boy

8 Of The Last 9 Winners Were Aged 8 or 9

So, what has been the best Grand National-winning age in recent times?

You have to go back to 2014 to find the last winner aged in double figures – Pineau De Re.

But since then – barring the Noble Yeats (7) win in 2022 – EVERY Grand National winner has been aged 8 or 9.

Of those left – here are the remaining 8 and 9 year-old runners in 2025.

✅Stumptown (8)
✅Nick Rockett (8)
✅Senior Chief (8)
✅Stay Away Fay (8)
✅Duffle Coat (8)
✅Hyland (8)
✅Beauport (9)
✅Hitman (9)
✅Kandoo Kid (9)
✅Minella Cocooner (9)
✅Monbeg Genius (9)

The Last Nine Winners Rated 146-160 and Only One Winner Carried 11st 9lbs or More Since 1975

Next up are two weight and ratings related Grand National trends 2025 – that have seen ALL of the last nine winners rated between 146-160.

Plus, only one winner since Red Rum carried 12st in 19974 carried 11st 9lbs ore more – this was Many Clouds in 2015 (11st 9lbs).

With the bottom end of the handicap likely to be the 147 mark – it’s only those as the top of the card (big weights) we are interested in knocking out here.

Of those left – from the list above, only one falls down.

❌Nick Rockett (163, 11st 8lbs)

Top Four Finish Last Time Out (7/8) – With 5 of the Last 7 Winning Their Last Race

Finally, heading to the National off the back of a good last time run has also been a good way of finding the winner in recent years.

A massive seven of the last 8 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out – only Noble Yeats in 2022 lets the side down here, when 9th in the Ultima Handicap Chase before he won.

While five of the last seven winners took the National having won their last race.

Of those left – here are the final bunch that tick all the above, age, days last race, weight, top 4 finish last time,

The SIX Horses That Tick The Most Of Our Grand National Trends 2025

✅STUMPTOWN
Days Last Ran: 24
Debut In Race: Yes
Age: 8
Weight: 11st 2lbs
Last Race Form: 1st (Cheltenham)

Comment: In the form of his life after four straight wins – the most recent being a comfortable success in the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

First run in the race, but has shown he handles these sort of fences in the past and at the age of 8, stamina assured and 11-2 looks to have a lot going for him.

✅MINELLA COCOONER
Days Last Ran: 42
Debut In Race: Yes
Age: 9
Weight: 11st 2lbs
Last Race Form: 4th (Fairyhouse)

Comment: Fourth in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last time out to Nick Rockett but meets that horse on 6lbs better terms here.

Also seems best at this time of the year – having run 3rd to Intense Raffles in the Irish Grand National lasst April and backed that up by taking the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last Spring.

✅MONBEG GENIUS
Days Last Ran: 56
Debut In Race: Yes
Age: 9
Weight: 10st 6lbs
Last Race Form: 1st (Uttoxeter)

Comment: From the Jonjo O’Neill yard who won the National with Don’t Push It in 2010. Had been touted as a possible National runner a few seasons ago after running third to Corach Rambler in the 2023 Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival, but lost his way after.

However, returned at the start of February to win well at Uttoxeter and prior to that ran an excellent 4th in the Welsh National over Christmas with 11st 10lbs – he’s only got 10st 6lbs this time.

✅HYLAND
Days Last Ran: 42
Debut In Race: Yes
Age: 8
Weight: 10st 6lbs
Last Race Form: 2nd (Kempton)

Comment: One of the many Grand National greys this year and will be looking to give trainer Nicky Henderson a first win in the race. Only had six career runs over fences, but has won 50% of those and is a sound jumper on what will be his first try in the National.

Another that will get in with a featherweight (needs one to come out) and at the age of 8 looks the perfect age based on the stats.

✅BEAUPORT
Days Last Ran: 49
Debut In Race: Yes
Age: 9
Weight: 11st lb
Last Race Form: 2nd (Haydock)

Comment: Won the 2024 Midlands National at Uttoxeter so we know stamina will be fine and hails from the Nigel Twiston-Davies team who know a thing or two about winning the Grand National – they won the race with Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002).

Is, however, rated 16lbs higer than his Midlands National success but has been running well over hurdles this season in a bid to protect his chasing mark – including running third in the Long Walk Hurdle over Christmas at Ascot.

✅HITMAN
Days Last Ran: 56
Debut In Race: Yes
Age: 9
Weight: 11st 1lb
Last Race Form: 2nd (Newbury)

Comment: Part-owned by Alex Ferguson so will be hoping to hit the back of the net for the former United boss.

A big price, and one of the five likely Paul Nicholls runners, but despite having only won three times over fences has hit the top three 17 times from 23 runs (74%) and was last seen running a fair race to be second in the G2 Denman Chase at Newbury.

Was also runner up in the Old Roan Chase here at Aintree in October. Staying is the unknown, but if lasting out certainly looks overpriced on what he’s done this season.

Bonus Grand National Trend 2025

Sorry, as US TV detective Columbo used to say there is “one last thing” – when it comes to the Grand National trends.

This is because in the last seven runners there is a new stat building up that could also help find the winner.

A massive 5 of the last 7 winners wore a TONGUE-TIE.

Yes, only I Am Maximus (2024) and Noble Yeats (2022), since One For Arthur started in the craze in 2017, haven’t.

But Noble Yeats still sported the first-time cheekpieces – meaning 6 of the last 7 winners had a tongue-tie or cheekpieces.

I Am Maximus won last year with NO form of headgear.

Therefore, if any of the five above have this headgear when the final decs are announced – then happy days.

Horses Wearing A Tongue-Tie

Appreciate It
Hitman
Bravemansgame
Threeunderthrufive
Kandoo Kid
Iroko
Vanillier
Idas Boy
Fil Dor
Stay Away Fay
Monbeg Genius
Horantzau d’Airy

Grand National Trends 2025 – The Last 33 Runnings

31/33 – Raced more than 56 days ago
29/33 – Won over at least 3m (chase) before
29/33 – Won no more than 6 times over fences before
25/33 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
25/33 – Aged 9 or older
25/33 – A double-figure price
25/33 – Raced no more than 34 days ago
23/33 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
22/33 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
21/33 – Won between 4-6 times over fences before
21/33 – Top 4 last time out (7 of the last 8)
19/33 – Irish-bred horse
19/33 – Favourites placed
18/33 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
16/33 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
13/33 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
13/33 – Trained in Ireland (inc 10 of the last 18 years)
9/33 – Won last race
8/33 – Favourite or joint favourite
7/33 – Ran in a previous Grand National (but 14 of the last 16 were having their debuts)
3/33 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/33 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/33 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/33 – Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 7)
1/33 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

Since 1978, 146 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just three winners – I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024, Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
19 of the last 25 winners were Ireland bred
5 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue tie
No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
3 of the last 15 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
10 of the last 21 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
5 of the last 22 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
Only five 8 year-olds have won the last 29 renewals (but 5 in the last 9 years)
Only two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 38 years (86 have attempted)
25 of the last 27 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
Only two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)
22 of the last 30 winners aged between 8-10
Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
14 of the last 16 Grand National winners were having their first run in the National
Just one 7 year-old or younger to win after 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
15 of the last 27 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before

Recent Grand National Winners (Last 20 Runnings)

2024 – I Am Maximus (7/1 jfav)
2023 – Corach Rambler (8/1 fav)
2022 – Noble Yeats (50/1)
2021 – Minella Times (11/1)
2020 – Cancelled (Covid)
2019 – Tiger Roll (4/1 fav)
2018 – Tiger Roll (10/1)
2017 – One For Arthur (14/1)
2016 – Rule The World 33/1
2015 – Many Clouds 25/1
2014 – Pineau De Re 25/1
2013 – Auroras Encore 66/1
2012 – Neptune Collonges 33/1
2011 – Ballabriggs 14/1
2010 – Don’t Push It 10/1jfav
2009 – Mon Mome 100/1
2008 – Comply or Die 7/1 jfav
2007 – Silver Birch 33/1
2006 – Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2005 – Hedgehunter 7/1 fav
2004 – Amberleigh House 16/1