With another big field in ‘The Race That Stops The Nation’, one way to help find the winner is by using the key Melbourne Cup trends and stats. With that in mind, we’ve listed these below – including 90% of the last 21 winners coming from stalls 5 or higher and 67% being placed in the top three last time out.
Melbourne Cup Trends and Stats For 2025 Flemington Race
See below the key Melbourne Cup trends that have built up over the last 21 runnings of the famous Flemington Park horse racing contest.
You can use these horse racing stats to apply to the 2025 Melbourne Cup runners to find the horses that best fit the profiles of past winners.
With a lot of rain at Flemington too, these stats can also be used with our Melbourne Cup runners guide – highlighting the horses that have done best on soft ground before.
- 21/21 – Won Group class race before
- 19/21 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
- 18/21 – Won 8 or fewer races
- 18/21 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
- 17/21 – Raced at Geelong (2), Flemington (4), Caulfield (5) or Moonee Valley (6) last time
- 17/21 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
- 16/21 – Aged 5 or older
- 15/21 – Ran within the last 2 weeks
- 15/21 – Ran at Flemington Park before (8 won there)
- 14/21 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
- 14/21 –Top 3 finish last time out
- 14/21 – Won by a AUS-based horse
- 12/21 – Aged 6 or older
- 11/21 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
- 11/21 – Horses from stall 10 or 11 placed
- 10/21 – Won by a 6 year-old
- 9/21 – Won over 1m7f or further before
- 9/21 – Favourites placed
- 6/21 – Winners trained in Europe (2 Irish, 1 UK, 1 German, 2 France)
- 6/21 – Won just once before
- 5/21 – Won last time out
- 5/21 – Ran in a previous Melbourne Cup
- 3/21 – Favourites
- 3/21 – English/Irish winners
- 2/21 – French-trained winners
- 6 European-trained winners since 2010
- The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is
- 6 of the last 11 winners carried 8-5 or less
- All of the last 11 winners carried 9-1 or less
- 7 of the last 9 winners came between stalls 12-21
- 4 of the last 5 winners carried between 8-10 and 9-1
- The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 30/1
Melbourne Cup 2025 Details and Date?
📅Date: Tuesday 4th November 2025
⌚Time: 4:00am (GMT)
🏇Racecourse: Flemington (2m)
💰Winning Purse: $4,500,000 AUS
📺 TV: Sky Sports Racing
Full Melbourne Cup prize money breakdown for 2025 – plus what the jockey and trainer will win.
Just Three Winning Melbourne Cup Favourites In The Last 21 Runnings
The horse that has been sent off as the Melbourne Cup favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK in recent years haven’t fared that well.
We’ve seen just three winning market leaders of the Melbourne Cup in the last 21 renewals and none since Fiorente in 2013.
Meaning the last ELEVEN Flemington favourites have all fallen by the wayside – including last year’s jolly Buckaroo, who could only manage 9th for trainer Chris Waller.
This year’s Melbourne Cup market leader looks a shootout between the Joseph O’Brien-trained Al Riffa and Hal Yours – but a lot can change in the betting before the race on Tuesday 4th November.
19 Of The Last 21 Melbourne Cup Winners Came From Stalls 5 Or Higher
Despite being run over one of the longer trips on the flat (2m), the Melbourne Cup draw has played its part in finding the winner over the last 21 years.
This is backed up with a massive 90% of the last 21 winners hailing from stalls 5 or higher – last year’s winner Knight’s Choice won from gate 5.
One theory on this draw stat is that being drawn low (1-4) means horses are more likely to get boxed in with most of the field running to their right.
Regardless, it’s still a very healthy Melbourne Cup trend that has built up over the years, so once the finally runners and the draw are out – this is certainly worth a look.
While with seven of the last nine winners coming between stalls 12 and 21 – this is worth noting too.
Horses Drawn 12-21
- Buckaroo (12)
- Middle Earth (13)
- River Of Stars (14)
- Arapaho (15)
- Land Legend (16)
- Flatten The Curve (17)
- Torranzino (18)
- Al Riffa (19)
- Goodie Two Shoes (20)
- Royal Supremacy (21)
67% Of The Last 21 Winners Ran In The Last Two Weeks and Finished In The Top Three
Next up is to look for horses who raced in the last few weeks and that also finished in the top three last time out.
Of course, it’s always wise to give the ‘days last ran’ a bit to wiggle room as the race date can move by a few days each year – it’s always staged on the first Tuesday of November.
18 of the last 21 winners ran in the last four weeks, while 15 of the last 21 had been in the track in the last two weeks.
A top three finish in a recent run has paid out in 14 of the last 21 renewals too.
Six European Melbourne Cup Winners Since 2010
Finally, even though this race is, of course, staged in Australia in more recent years the lucrative prize of $4,500,00 AUS has attracted many runners from all over the world – most notably Europe.
These raiders have done well too – with six European-trained winners since 2010, which include two from Ireland and France, plus one each from the UK and Germany.
The European winners since 2010 are – American, Dunaden, Protectionist, Rekindling, Cross Counter and Twilight Payment.
Melbourne Cup Winners (Last 10 Years)
- 2024 – KNIGHT’S CHOICE (90/1)
- 2023 – WITHOUT A FIGHT (7/1)
- 2022 – GOLD TRIP (20/1)
- 2021 – VERRY ELLEEGANT (17/1)
- 2020 – TWILIGHT PAYMENT (25/1)
- 2019 – VOW AND DECLARE (10/1)
- 2018 – CROSS COUNTER (8/1)
- 2017 – REKINDLING (14/1)
- 2016 – ALMANDIN (10/1)
- 2015 – PRINCE OF PENZANCE (100/1)
